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Moreover, Communist activities in the rice-
exporting countries will interfere with the food supplies of the other countries of South East Asia and India, and will thus cause increased labour troubles and additional internal security commitments.
10.
Malaya is an example where Communist infiltration has caused an increased internal security commitment which has resulted in our strategic theatre reserve having to be reinforced and. fully deployed.
11.
Possession of Formosa by the enemy in war would increase the threat to our sea and air communications. It is therefore important to prevent its domination by the Communists in peace.
12.
The Foreign Office have pointed out the political and economic dangers of Communist encirclement of India and Pakistan with the possibility of ultimate Communist control of these two countries. If India and Pakistan become Communist, they would certainly cease to be members of the Commonwealth and might become either active allies or co-belligerents with Russia. In either case military and economic advantages in the form of air staging posts, ports, armament production and manpower would be denied us. Furthermore, we should be unable to obtain recruits for the Gurkha Division from Nepal.
The spread of Communism in Ceylon might constitute a threat to our base facilities there and thus to our sea communications in the Indian Ocean.
Deductions
13.
From the above we deduce that, since Communist- dominated countries in the Far East may be allied with the Soviet Union, the whole of their territories · < may be available in peace for recomaissance and preparation of bases and, on the outbreak of wor, for occupation of Soviet forces; with the result that:-
The scale of attack on important Allied interests in South East Asia could be greatly increased.
(a)
(b)
It would be much more difficult to mount
an effective strategic air offensive in the Fer East,
(c)
(a)
74.
The threat to our sea communications
would be increased.
Conditions would be created in and
around our territories, in both peace and wer, which would necessitate an ever-increasing military effort
in their defence and in the maintenance of law and order.
We therefore conclude that 11 possible steps should be taken to counter the probable effects of the spread of Communism in the Far East.
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