}
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ANNEX III.
I agree generally with the views expressed in
Mr. Baggallay's minute. I will add:-
(1) In spite of the great efforts made by the Shah it is extremely dou tful whether the Persion Army could seriously resist any large scale attack, even with a position like that of the Elburz mountains to assist them,
(2) As soon as any discussions with the Persians get beyond a stage at which they can be confined to the Shah and one or two of his ministers it must be assumed that they will become known to the Russians and Gormans.
(3) I think we should be careful not to be too discouraging, thus giving the Shah an excuse for taking the line that if no one can help him he has no choice but to make the best deal he can with the Russians. He would certainly not like doing this but it is a possibility which we shall have to bear in mind.
I do not think we can proceed further for the moment until we get the views of the Chiefs of Staff on what is actually possible.
(Signed) H.J. SEYMOUR.
12th February, 1940.
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