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4. Our forthcoming withdrawal from Bucharest may well afford a test as to whether the Germans really fear our bombing or not. It seems certain that the Germans will interpret the withdrawal of our Legation as an indication that we are now going to bomb the wells and this view is reflected in this morning's press. If this prospect alarms them, we may expect a quick riposte on their part either in Bulgaria or elsewhere, If on the other hand they have no anxieties on this score either because they are, in their own minds, sure of the Greeks and Turks or else because they bank on the inadequacy of our resources, then we may take it that they will not bother to alter their timetable merely because we have broken off relations with Roumania.
5.
Incidentally we must remember that to bomb the oil wells would involve a violation of Bulgaria's "national air". If we were to bomb the wells before the Germans had bechnically occupied Bulgaria, it would give Hitler a pretext for coming down in force at once in order "to help Bulgaria defend her neutrality".
6.
Our own view is
useful
and it is one we have constantly put forward, though not, I think, to the Chiefs of Staff - that until we are in a position to bomb the oil wells and refineries in such a fashion as to dislocate effectively Germany's oil supply for a lengthy period, it does not seem worth while embarking upon premature and inconclusive raids.
7.
There remains the question of dropping leaflets in Roumania, as suggested by Hoare in his telegram No. 302. There is a good deal to be said for this if we can spare the bombers for this sort of preparatory work. But I doubt whether the Greeks would agree to our using their aerodromes for even this purpose.
8.
Lastly, there is Hoare's telegram No. 2636 of last week,
which at the time was sent to the Service Departments, Hollis and the Directors of Intelligence. I enclose a copy. I have no doubt that those concerned have already in mind the comparative value as targets of the 911 wells themselves and communications with the oil wells. Hoare seems to make out a good case for the latte if our attacks cannot be made in great force. The destruction of river ports, railways and marshalling yards would have the additional advantage that as wall as hampering the transport of oil it would disorganise military transport.
x
Annex I.
Annex II.
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X
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X
Y
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