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1. Political.
ANNEX
DETAILED APPRECIATION.
I. GENERAL SURVEY.
Our position in Europe depends upon maintaining the terror inspired by our armed might and the
Consequently successes which we have hitherto achieved.
we can afford to give the enemy no opportunity of inflicting a serious and obvious check to our arms and ve must undertake no major operation until we have carefully prepared it and are satisfied that it will be successful.
2.
The morale of the people is not high, but they are apathetic, They are quietly confident of victory because
For a they do not see how Germany can be defeated. considerable time to come our police and party organisation will see to it that privations or reverses will provoke no internal disturbances.
3.
Certain of the Occupied Territories contain strong elements of resistance which may in time be dangerous. the present they can be kept in check with little trouble.
4.
For
Italy is already an economic strain upon us but so long as she remains in strength in the Mediterranean we
Italian dislike of us cannot afford to see her overthrown. may complicate intervention, but they are so afraid of us that are unlikely ever to dare oppose us.
5.
As regards countries at present neutral, Russia must for the present be kept quiet until the time is ripe to deal with her. That, except in dire extremity, will be after the overthrow of Britain, since the war on two fronts must, if possible, be avoided. The attitude of Spain towards full
Franco has displayed co-operation with us is still uncertain.
He seems obsessed
America must Our task is to impede
an unfortunate petty mindedness and seems unable to comprehend the role allotted to Spain. with Sin's economic and social problems. already be ranged amongst our enemies. and delay aid to the enemy. For this purpose we must mobilise all the elements in the United States which consciously or unconsciously play our game,
6.
Moreover,
In France pro-English sentiment is growing. the French Government is terrified of being bombed by England. Consequently France is not likely to join the Axis
The presence of in the war against Britain on any terms, Weygand in Africa, the territorial integrity of the French. Empire and possibly the existence of the French Fleet are regarded by the French Government as an insurance against undue pressure. We must continue to put the screw on France whilst being careful at the same time not to provoke her into resuming the struggle.
Economic, By July,1941, we shall be short of certain important commodities (such as rubber, tin, nickel and possibly chrome) and will be faced with the prospect of a much more general shortage in the following twelve months. No single project of territorial expansion offers the prospect of alleviating more than one or two of the major deficiencies.
8.
Our most recent review of the oil position shows that at the present rate of consumption we must deplete our oil
Until stocks at a rapid rate until the end of March 1941. this date, however, we shall have adequate free stocks to
From April 1941 onwards supply any military operation,
our oil position will depend upon largely increased supplies
!
Zar
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