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40.
(b) Establish herself strongly in Greece. For
the moment operations in Africa and the reluctance of the Greeks to invite a German-attack may be relied upon to delay this, but Germany must be prepared for this eventuality (para.35).
(c) Occupy certain Portuguese and Spanish Islands, (para.29). The occupation of Portuguese
and Spanish islands is improbable unless Spain joins the Axis or the Peninsula is invaded by Germany, Germany can do nothing to prevent such occupation except endeavour to forestall it.
(d) Carry out minor seaborne raids against important objectives. The maintenance of reasonable
German forces in the neighbourhood of any possible objectives of real importance will provide adequate protection.
(e) England will, of course, continue air attack
against Germany and certain points in occupied territory. The material effect of air bombardment has been less than might have been expected. This is probably due to the selection of a number of targets scattered over a wide area. Sustained attacks on a limited number of targets may have more important material and moral results in the future.
None of the courses open to England affects Germany's freedom of action at present except in so far as British air attacks on Germany make Hitler reluctant, on internal and military grounds, to divert German air forces from the main theatre.
CONCLUSIONS.
41.
(a)
Germany has the initiative.
England has at present no military means of dealing a mortal blow at Germany. On the other hand, Germany hopes to be able to strike down England and intends to make the attempt before her own strength is weakened by economic pressure.
(b) Blockade and air attack are Germany's principal weapons. To secure victory she may be expected te intensify the blockade and secure better co-ordination between sea and air effort.
The
(c) It is hoped that England will be so weakened as to enable Germany to accelerate victory by invasion. difficulty of the task is recognised. The R.A.F. must first be defeated and the navy neutralised or dispersed. But in any event the threat of invasion must be maintained so as to reinforce the blockade by diverting the British navy from the task of protecting commerce.
42. (a) Germany will be reluctant to divert forces from the main theatre. But she may be compelled to do so;
(i) to increase the pressure of the blockade,
(ii) as a security measure.
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