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(b) To increase the pressure of the blockade,
Germany may occupy Spain and Portugal and even some of their Atlantic islands. This might be followed by the occupation of the Tangier, Ceuta, Tetuan regions.
43.
(c) As a security measure, Germany may
(i)
(ii)
invade Greece through the Balkans
in order to meet a British threat to the Rumanian oil supply;
occupy part or the whole of Italy to forestall an Italian collapse;
(iii) give the minimun assistance to Italy
to prevent a disaster in Albania.
The prospects of invasion will be lessened in the proportion in which German forces are diverted from the main theatre. A major diversion of German forces will mean that Germany has given up hope of a quick decision. In that event Germany's most likely course would be an attempt to become master of the Eastern Mediterranean.
44.
The following operations appear unlikely at present.
(a)
The occupation of Unoccupied France and the seizure of the French fleet.
(b) The sccupation of Dakar.
(c) The occupation of certain Spanish or
Portuguese islands as an isolated operation.
(a) The occupation of Eire or Iceland, except
possibly as part of the plan for the invasion of England.
(e)
An attack on Russia.'
(Signed) P.J. MACKESY.
Great George Street, S.W.:
31ST DECEMBER, 1940.
1.
!!
T.H. TROUBRIDGE.
ti
J.L. VACHELL.
#t
I.A. KIRKPATRICK.
#t
0.L. LAWRENCE.
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