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It is, however, in the interests of Germany to maintain tranquillity in the Balkans in order to encourage maximum production for the benefit of the German economy and to avoid interference with transport. It will be particularly important not to hinder the transport of oil from Rumania during the spring and early summer of 1941.
10.
The continuation of supplies from French North Africa is of economic advantage to Germany and is a factor of which some account must be taken,
11. The economic position of Spain is desperate. Unless food supplies continue to enter from overseas, starvation will be common when the 1940 harvest has been consumed. Germany is already faced with the position that if absolute starvation is to be prevented in some of the countries already occupied, she will, however unwillingly, be forced to deplete her reserve stocks of bread grains and fats. The occupation of Spain would add greatly to the existing difficulties unless, as is not impossible, the decision was made to let the Spaniards starve. On the other hand, a starving nation of Spaniards is not calculated to be a good companion and the strain involved in keeping open German lines of communication might well prove too great. Unless, therefore, occupation of Spain could be counted upon to ensure quick victory the economic problem involved must be a deterrent. It is not a bar.
12.
Portugal is better able to maintain herself if only because of her stronger stock position. Germany would like to obtain complete con rol. of Portuguese tin and wolfram resources which become of proportionately greater importance as German stocks of these commodities are reduced,
13.
The conclusion in the economic sphere is, therefore, that Hitler must aim at early victory. He may also find
it necessary to take steps to prevent Britain from establishing herself firmly in Greece and may endeavour to free the Eastern Mediterranear-sea-route and to assert German economic control over Greece and Turkey..
14.Military. The morale of the German Navy including that of the submarine crews is good.
Hitler must
The British fleet is vastly superior to the German, the Italian fleet has shown itself ineffective in action though while Italy remains in the axis a great strain is thrown upon British sea power and communications. therefore aim at achieving, and maintaining, the maximum
the possible dispersion of the British fleet by every means, most important of which is keeping Italy actively in the war.
The entry of America into the war would bring some naval reinforcement to Britain but its extent would be dependent on the attitude of Japan,
15.
Hitler is well informed of the strength of the British air forces and of the productive capacity of the British and American aircraft industries. Germany has at present a considerable superiority in numbers, new and improved types of aircraft are in production. On the other hand British strength is growing and the passage of time is likely to reduce the present disparity, Even if Britain attained parity of numbers the employment of British air forces in other theatres and for trade protection together with Germany's favourable geographical position will give her effective superiority. Germany were to embark on subsidiary campaigns elsewhere this situation might alter. Italy has a numerically strong air force but it has not proved effective or capable of drawing off much of Britain's metropolitan air force.
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