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16. As regards the army Germany has at least 217 divisions available. Of these some 43 are required on the Russian front, 80 for security in occupied countries, 35 in readiness for invasion of England, 20 for internal security in Germany and as a general reserve, leaving 39 available for other active operations. These numbers, which now include 12 armoured and 6 motorised divisions, are being increased.
The morale of the German army is high as are its equipment and training of every kind. The defeat of 1918 was never allowed to be interpreted correctly to the German army and any lingering doubts have been dispelled by two highly successful campaigns in 1940.
Hitler must have a very shrewd idea of the strength of the military forces which the British Empire can put into the field and a fair knowledge of the time which will be required for the various stages. Recent operations in Egypt and Libya must have impressed Germany with the fighting efficiency of the British army in spite of the contempt felt for the Italian as a fighting man.
17.
From the point of view of the army therefore, Germany has the initiative for some months to come, but the longer a bid for victory is postponed the more difficult it will become.
II.
GERMANY'S AIM.
18. Germany's aim must be to achieve victory at the earliest possible moment.
19.
III.
COURSES OPEN TO GERMANY.
German victory necessitates the defeat of the British Empire. This necessitates the defeat of the United Kingdom England.. England can be defeated in two ways, invasion or starvation.
20.
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Invasion, if practicable and if successful, offers
the most certain road for German victory.
Necessary for Success are the reduction or dispersal of the British fleet, the reduction to
practical impotence of the Royal Air Force and the defeat of the army in the United Kingdom.
Each one of these tasks presents difficulties of the first magnitude. If attempted the most daring measures would certainly be adopted. Very heavy attacks on the Taranto model would be delivered, the whole naval strength of Germany would be used and if necessary sacrificed in order to prevent interference by British naval forces.
The British air force will have to be defeated and this will necessitate a resumption of large scale operations by day. With the new engines now being introduced by Germany the engagements will probably take place at greater heights where German aircraft may not suffer from inferiority of performance as they have in the past Gas may be used but its greatest effect is to be expected on the civil pepulation rather than against the armed forcès.
Up 20 20.000 air-borne troops with light tanks and mortars may be employed on the first day.
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