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THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT
TO BE KEPT UNDER LOCK AND KEY.
It is requested that special care may be taken to ensure the secrecy of this document.
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487 (J.I.C.)
SECRE T.
clo Si(40)487(J.I.C
(Also Paper No.
JAICA (40)138).
24TH JUNE, 1940.
WAR CABINET.
CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE.
COASTAL EVACUATION: NOTICE TO HOME DEFENCE EXECUTIVE.
Report by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee.
COPY NO.27.
I,
We have had under consideration the Minutes dated 21st June by Sir Hugh Elles and Sir John Anderson, onjes We have of which are attached to this Paper as Annex A. taken note that the Home Defence Executive evacuation scheme requires three days' previous notice to enable it to be successfully operated, and we have accordingly considered how far it is likely that we shall be able to give this amount of warning of any impending enemy action.
2.
There is at present no reconnaissance over the Western Baltic. It is possible for an expeditionary force to assemble there in complete secrecy, and even to enter the North Sea before being detected. During the short summer nights submarine reconnaissance in the Skagerrak is not practicable.
3.
Whilst we shall no doubt receive beforehand indications that seaborne invasion is impending, we cannot guarantee being able to give three days' warning.
4.
We can guarantee no warning at all of the
approach of seaborne raids.
5.
In view of the present location of the German Air Force we regard it as improbable that any large scale air attack could be launched this month without our being able to give three days' warning.
In the course of
the next week the German Air Force may be regrouped in positions ready for a large-scale air attack on this country and in that case we shall probably not receive any advance warning whatever.
6.
Even if three days' notice of a seaborne invasion were possible, preliminary air attacks on rail or road communications would so dislocate traffic that the evacuation of the civil population of coastal towns might be impossible or at least chaotic. Evacuation under
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