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Singapore a force greater than a raid of about 2,000 men. Any attack against Hong Kong of a greater strength than 2,000 on the part of the Dutch is therefore improbable.
United States.--The establishment of the regular troops in the Philippine Islands is approximately 12,000, of whom about 5,000 are infantry. There are also 1,300 marines and 5,000 Philippine scouts.
The American garrison is fully employed at present in maintaining internal order in the islands, and there is, moreover, no shipping in the Philippine Islands suited for transport work.
In present circumstances, therefore, it is improbable that the normal garrison of United States troops in the Philippines could dispatch a raiding force against Hong Kong, though it is possible that a force of about 2,000 could be sent by taking advantage of the arrival of transports with reliefs.
11.-Possibility of Attack on Hong Kong by China.
3. The conditions affecting the possibility of attack by China are different from those governing the possibility of attack by other Powers. British and Chinese territories meet on a land frontier at a distance of 14 miles from Hong Kong, and there is direct connection by rail between Canton and Kowloon, which places are separated from one another by a distance of only 120 miles.
The possession of command of the sea by the Anglo-Japanese fleet only limits China's power of aggression against Hong Kong by confining her to attack on the land front.
4. The strength of the Chinese troops in Ku'angtung, the province adjoining Hong Kong, is according to the latest reports as follows:-
Provincial troops Regular
..
40,000 80,000
The provincial troops correspond to some extent to our military police on the Indian frontiers, and are scattered over some 100,000 square miles of territory. These may therefore be neglected in considering the possibility of offensive action by China.
The regular troops form the permanent garrison of Canton, and have fifty-seven guns (probably Krupp 2-95-inch mountain guns).
The latest scheme, prepared at the Revolutionary Army Headquarters in April 1912, provided for four divisions of 8,500 combatants each, being maintained in Ku'angtung province.
The quality of the 4,000 Cantonese troops which fought with the revolutionaries in Nanking in December 1911 was highly spoken of by a British officer of many years' experience in China who was present there. Although truculent and undisciplined, they were counted as the best fighting men in Central and Southern China.
Judging from recent reports the military efficiency of the troops about Canton may be summed up at present as under :---
Material of the rank and file for the most part good. Discipline and training at present moderate. Leading poor. The value of the regular troops is, however, improving rapidly.
In a British paper in Hong Kong a correspondent wrote as under in January 1912 on this subject :-
"I am assured that every day sees the troops more and more under control, better organized and more loyal; it will not be long before the (Chinese) authorities will be able to rely implicitly on the regular troops.'
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This opinion is confirmed by the reports of the General Staff, South China, who have of late impressed on us the fact that the training, discipline, and armament of these troops is continually improving.
5. The roads leading from Canton to the frontier of the Hong Kong territory are very bad. The railway is in working order, but is deficient in rolling stock. In 1915 the completion of the trunk line from Peking to Canton is expected, and it is intended to join up the two termini at Canton by a line 4 miles in length. Thereafter large quantities of rolling stock would be available.
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