CAB38-23 — Page 5

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SECRET.

MILITARY CONDITIONS GOVERNING AN ATTACK ON HONG KONG.

NOTE BY THE General Staff.

1.-Attack on Hong Kong from Oversea.

DURING the continuance of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance no Power or combination of Powers in the Far East could at present hope to gain command of the sea against the combined Anglo-Japanese fleets, and consequently no oversea attack against Hong Kong could be carried out by other Powers except in the form of a raid by such a force as could be shipped, without much previous preparation, on transports immediately available.

It may fairly be assumed that such an enterprise, if contemplated, would only be entrusted to the most efficient troops, and the strength of such a raiding force will therefore depend on :—

1.) The number of regular troops maintained by foreign Powers in the Far East; (b.) The internal conditions prevailing in the dependencies of these foreign Powers, as the extent to which the regular garrison of a colony can be depleted depends on the loyalty of the native population;

(c.) The geographical position of the possessions of these Powers with reference

to Japan and Hong Kong.

2. In considering the possibility of oversea attack the Powers of which account has to be taken are France, Russia, Germany, Holland, and the United States.

France. The peace strength of the garrison of French Indo-China is about 11,700 Europeans and 13,300 natives. There are also about 17,000 native reservists and 8,000 "gardes indigènes." The political conditions now prevailing in Europe make it unlikely that the French need be considered as potential enemies in the near future. Moreover, there is a spirit of discontent and unrest among their native troops, so that it is unlikely that they would consider it safe either to employ them in a difficult and hazardous operation, or to detach European troops for an expedition oversea.

Russia. Although Russia has large numbers of troops east of Lake Baikal, the fact that she has no navy in the Pacific, and the position of Vladivostock with reference to Japan and Hong Kong, render it so improbable that she would undertake oversea operations of any kind that it is considered unnecessary to reckon her as a potential enemy so far as Hong Kong is concerned.

Germany. The establishment of German European troops in T'sing-tau is 2,440 (including about 1,300 infantry). There are also about 400 reservists in T'sing-tau who could be called out when required.

The existence of the Anglo-Japanese treaty, the relative positions of T'sing-tau, Japan, and Hong Kong, and the weakness of the German garrison render it very improbable that Germany would undertake any aggressive action against Hong Kong, even if the internal condition of T'sing-tau were such as to warrant the reduction of the European garrison. By taking advantage of the arrival of transports with reliefs, however, it is possible that a force of about 1,000 could be dispatched.

Holland.-The troops in the Netherlands East Indies number about 34,800 of all ranks. Of these 12,000 are Europeans and 22,800 are natives. The latter are of good fighting material, and are said to constitute a very efficient force.

It is therefore apparent that the Dutch could detach a considerable force for operations overseas if naval conditions permitted.

The Admiralty, however, in O.D.C., 605 R, dated 27th July, 1912, expressed the opinion that it is not reasonably probable that the Dutch could dispatch against

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