Page 262
Page 262
Page 262
possessions in the Pacific serve to indicate the relative capabilities of each Power to dispatch a military expedition against New Zealand :--
(a.) France. The French fortified port nearest to Wellington is Saigon, 4,970 miles
distant.
•
The peace strength of the garrison of French Indo-China is now 25,000 men, of whom 11,690 are Europeans. In the event of war 16,000 to 18,000 native reservists and 8,000 gardes indigènes would be available, besides about 7,000 Europeans who have undergone military training. The native troops are indifferent and the military position is still considered somewhat precarious, although the internal conditions of the country are improving.
(b.) Germany. The German fortified port nearest to Wellington is Kiao-chau
("T'sing-tau "), 5,550 miles distant.
The establishment of the garrison of Kiao-chau is 2,240 men. There are also about 400 reservists, who can be called out when required. (c.) Russia.-The Russian fortified port nearest to Wellington is Vladivostock,
5,700 miles distant.
The Russian Siberian troops were reorganised in 1910. They now consist of the Ist, IVth, and Vth Siberian Army Corps in the Pri-Amur Military District with headquarters at Khabarovsk on the Amur, and the IInd and IIIrd Siberian Army Corps in the Irkutsk Military District, and the 11th Siberian Rifle Division in the Omsk Military District.
(d.) United States.-The American fortified ports nearest to Wellington are Kavite
in Manila Bay, 4,690 miles distant, or San Francisco, 6,430 miles distant.
The strength of the United States garrison in the Philippines is about 12,000 regular troops and 1,300 Marines. There are in addition 5,000 Philippine Scouts, cominanded by American officers, and 6,500 Philippine Constabulary, officered by Americans and Philippinos.
(e.) Japan. The nearest base in Japan is Nagasaki, 5,050 miles distant from
Wellington.
Japan has a standing army of nineteen divisions complete and fit for service in every detail. A division at war strength is about 20,000 men. With the addition of certain reserve brigades and of her national army, Japan could probably place over a million men in the field.
6. Having regard to the comparative weakness of their naval and military forces in the Pacific and to the remoteness of their bases from New Zealand territory, it is to the last degree improbable that either France or Germany could bring against New Zealand any military landing force more formidable than the present defences are calculated to meet, viz., a maximum landing force of 1,000 men.” While Russia, in spite of her great military resources in Eastern Asia, owing to her naval weakness appears for the present to be precluded from undertaking serious operations oversea.
7. In view of the remoteness of the contingency of a war with the United States, it is not necessary, in calculating the standard of the local defences required in New Zealand, to take into special consideration the scale of attack that could be brought to bear by that Power.
8. As regards Japan, the existence of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance at the present time relieves us from the necessity of considering the scale of attack that modern Japan could bring to bear on British possessions in the Pacific. For, so long as the Japanese Alliance remains operative, not only is the risk of attack by Japan excluded from the category of reasonable probabilities to be provided against, but British naval requirements are held to be adequately met if the combined British and Japanese forces in the Eastern seas are superior to the forces of any probable combination of two naval Powers.
9. Having regard to these considerations, the Admiralty adhere to the view that under existing conditions it is not reasonably probable that any land attack on New Zealand, more formidable than a raid by a small landing force such as could be conveyed by three or four unarmoured cruisers, will be undertaken.
Page 262
Page 262