CAB38-17 — Page 261

SECRET.

No. 77-C.

Page 261

NEW ZEALAND.

Scale of Attack under existing Conditions.

:

Memorandum by the Committee of Imperial Defence.

IN the Colonial Defence Committee's Memorandum No. 417 M, dated the 7th July, 1910, which has received the approval of the Committee of Imperial Defence, the general principles of Imperial defence, as affecting the oversea Dominions and Colonies, set forth in their Memorandum No. 348 M, dated the 2nd August, 1905, have been restated with modifications necessitated to meet the change of conditions brought about by recent developments of naval matériel and alterations in the naval situation throughout the world.

2. The occasion has been considered opportune to review the strategic position of New Zealand, with a view to ascertaining whether any modifications of the scale of probable attack as laid down in the Colonial Defence Committee's Memorandum No. 366 M, dated the 14th August, 1906, on the revision of the fixed defences of New Zealand, have become necessary in view of the changed conditions described in that Memorandum.

3. It is obvious that the course of events in war cannot be predicted with certainty; and in recording the following opinions as to the probable nature and scale of oversea attack on New Zealand, the Committee desire to point out that they must not be held to have given an absolute guarantee that any particular form of operation will not be undertaken in war. All that they claim to do is to state what forms of oversea attack, having regard to the general strategic situation, they consider to be reasonably probable, with a view to furnishing a reasoned basis for the calculation of the standard of defences required, so as to ensure that the defences are provided on a uniform system and that wasteful expenditure is avoided.

4. As regards naval attack in their Memorandum No. 366 M, the Colonial Defence Committee expressed the view that the employment of armoured cruisers as of battle- ships in New Zealand waters is not a contingency which in the light of present and prospective naval developments need reasonably be expected."

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The Admiralty adhere to the view that the strategic importance of New Zealand ports is at present too small to justify, in the opinion of a naval commander, the employment of armoured vessels in attacks upon them; for such operations, even if successful, would exercise no decisive effect on the result of a maritime war.

The only form of naval attack that need be provided against at New Zealand ports is therefore raiding attack by unarmoured cruisers.

5. As regards the possibilities of attack by a military landing force, the following particulars of the naval ports and the available military forces of Powers having

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