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THE HONGKONG TE LEGRAPIE, SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 1937.
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F
OR the purposes of this article I am going to ask you to take two things for granted. The first is that there will bo A next slump. The second is that its coming iş not very far off.
I cannot prove either state- ment. And, indeed, the first is much more probably true than the accond. Unless something happens which would be quito unprecedented in economic his tory, the present period of re- covery will be followed, time, by a recession.
Some
As for the second statement, nobody knows for certain when
But tho recession will set in. there is a growing body of expert opinion which dates it for early 1939.
Do you want to see a symp- Lom of the end of recovery?
Hongkong Hotel Then look at the diagram. The
Stubbs Rd.
Garage
SHOWROOM
The
Phone 27778-9
Thongkong Telegraph.
SATURDAY, November 19, 1937.
curve shown what has been hap- pening since the end of 1931 to the building industry. It is based on the published figures of the building plans approved by a large number of local au- thorities.
Plans, of course, are approved before the house is built, and if you see a house going up, the plans for it may have been ap- proved as much as twelve months ago, or even earlier.
*
The curvo has therefore been drawn to show against every proved in the preceding twelve month the amount of plans ap-
months.
BUILDING PLANS
€1935 =100}
17932 1933 1934 1933 1030 1937
How To
the Next
Stop Slump
Why should not a Ten-Year- Plan be drawn up for the re building of the main roads, at a cost of £80,000,000 a year? Then, in any year when unem- ployment was heavy, a year's in- stainient of the programme could
PACIFISM ARRIVES Hongkong is about to meet formally and face to face some of the leaders of the pacificist
once when the unemployment employment problem?
revived, the programme could be movement who are intent upon ed are, for a variety of reasons,
These figures of plans approv- figures start rising.
I have suggested, then, a new postponed. In this forming a local Group of the
a poor guide to the actual amount What form should the plans 500,000 house building pro- building would be combined with Peace Pledge Union. As a gar- of building. But they are the take? Obviously no one person gramme in addition to what is alump prevention. rison of importance and a naval best guide' we possess.
whole plan for being done at present-roughly And the can present a which has been called vital, significant is that
slump prevention. But there are half for slums and half for over-
pared and be ready to start at tion would help to solve the un- be put in hand. When trade
the
way road
But where is the £80,000,000
“RICORDI” “CARL FISCHER"the Colony may be disposed, in curve has definitely turned down two things that could be done, crowding. There is nothing in a year to come from? Surely!
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ི་ངོ་བ
THE
COUNT "TELEGRAPHS"
EVERYWHERE
OT
and
ormous need of houses for the
each of which would be a power- the least unorthodox about this. am not suggesting, after the ex- the main, to ignore the effort of ward.
ful blow in the battle, and each It is merely the continuation of 'perience of the last Labour Gov- well-meaning men to enlist sup Building has been the back of which is worth doing for its what the Government has been ernment, that the Budget should port for the pledge: "I re-bone of Brilish recovery. The own sake, entirely apart from doing for years past, merely the be unbalanced to provide work. nounce war and I will never sup-volume of employment in the its merits as a slump preventer, anticipation of what they admit for the unemployed? port
sanction another building industry is still at
will be necessary some time in That would be unjust and unin-look extremely probable that
In two words, these two sug the future. record levels. But it begins to
gestions are HOUSES telligent. When any group of there will be a falling-off next
The answer might be that if ́ ROADS.
The only novelty in my aug- we can unbalance the Budget thoughtful persons becomes so year:
Building houses, is the most gestion is that instead of post- for rearrnament we can do it for poning the plans until the vague the prevention of unemployment.. convinced of the righteousness and rightness of its cause that if the next slump can be pre- ployment. We are already ap tion when the slump shows signs financed in the soundest of sound
Everybody would agree that obvious and direct way of pre- future, they should immediately the
venting a slump in building em- be got ready for prompt applica- building programmo
as it happens, this road it will crusade for it, and when vented, or aven
can be. mitigated, it thousands are converted to its would be a good thing to try. preaching the exhaustion of the of coming. If private housing is belief, it would be folly to dis-And any economist will tell you people who can afford to pay for housing should be on the up-
private demand for houses by оп the down-grade,
ways. public miss the object of the campaign/that the earlier you start with them. But there is still an en-
To begin with, if £80,000,000 your preventive action, the bet-
grade. unattainable, imbecile
were spent on the roads in a or ter chance of success you have. less fortunate for whom build- "Toppy-cock." Yet_that_is_pre-
The second suggestion is for slump year, there would be con siderable-savings to the Govern cisely the reaction of various The time to start, then, is now. ing societies and insurance com- ROADS. It has been proved over ment in the dole. Let us esti- types: types, let it be said, vary-
We should get all our plans pre- panies cannot cater.
and over again that a large pro- mate these, conservatively, at portion of our road accidents is £20,000,000. If the Government ing in their narrow-mindedness
due to the bad quality of the did not find this money for road and bigotry exactly in ratio to argument of the pacifists. On The present slum clearance roads.
the contrary, one is inclined to programme, though it will have
building, it would have to find it demnation. One might as well Union is attempting to run be- feel that the Peace Pledge
Here again we have Govern for the dule. So the Budget built over 300,000 new houses by ment pronouncements to go on. would be no worse off than it argue that Euclid was a fool before there is any path for it to the end of 1038, does not by any Before Mr. Hore-Belisha left the would be in any case. cause one does not understand walk. It is immediately defeat- means solve the slum problem. Ministry of Transport he laid geometry; or that there is no ed by the political structure of Another 300,000 houses at the down a standard specification taxation is increasing at the rate Secondly, the yield of motor very least could be built in re for a main road, including dual of about £4,000,000 a year, and good in Mohammedanism be-the world.
placement of the slums. cause one is a Christian or a
carriageways, cycle tracks is going to go on increasing. Pacifism, moreover, is anta- Jew, as to condemn the ideal of gonistic to the structure of the
Then there is overcrowding, roundabout or flyover crossings
and other such details.
It would be the soundest of pacifism without giving it at League of Nations. It is not Under the present plans, some-
finance to pledge this increase in least a hearing, if not a little just a belief; it is an attitude. thing like 200,000 houses are to We shall not be able to say revenue to pay the interest and
The League of Nations is a bebe built to relieve overcrowding that our roads are satisfactory, other service charges on large- lief and a fact. And on that (which is not technically, the that they are safe for the public capital loans for road-building. The very word "pacifism" is fact, though much fault can be same thing as the slum problem). to travel on, until every main Each year's increase would easi- like a red rag to a bull to a good found with the foundations on Here we have an official state road has been rebuilt to the ly pay the charges on a loan of many people. Just as "bolshev-which it, too, is supported, it is ment by th Minister of Health standard specification.
the £60,000,000 needed to make The cost of that would be up the year's road-building pro- ism" or "socialism" conjure up possible to build with some hope that the present programme is thoughts of bearded anarchy of permanence. The League is only a beginning. Since another something like £800,000,000-an gramme.
an instrument to prevent war. 200,000 houses will be needed enormous sum, but little more and bombs and bloody knives, so Pacifism is a movement to some time, why not build them than half of what we are spend- "pacifism" brings to many minds abolish war. Surely they can-at a time when their construc- ing in five years for rearmament. the picture of shrinking cowar-not be anything but complement-] dice. One of the greatest paci-jury, since, in effect, they have a fists was the late Brigadier-common goal,
the positiveness of their
thought.
con-
any man to
BULLS AND INNERS
口 D
From the Office Butts
This would mean, of course, that the Chancellor of the Ex- chequer would not get the in- crease in the yield of motor texa- tion for his Budget. But there would be no reduction in the amount he is now getting from car owners, And £80,000,000 a year would be found without un- balancing the Budget.
General F. P. Crozier, C.B., Pacifism 16 a principle may C.M.G., D.S.O., whose conspicu-make appeal; but pacifismn in ous record in batile made. hím įpresent day practice makes A immune from any accusation sorry showing if it is carried touching his personal gallantry, to its ultimate end. It will
be hard for though it did not protect him resist striking a blow in defence from attack on other scores. of his home and his native coun-
"Car TurTIA The point is that to shut eyes try if either is invaded. But and stop cara against any ideal-pacifism preaches non-resistance, check-to-check dancing is to newspaper heading. The pas- along. But they are the sort of istic or other argument is often basing its argument on the sup marry the girl.
sengers, were, of course, in the thing that is needed if we are to do anything about slump pre- position that without resistance
vention.
a confession of weakness, more there can be no war. That does ofton of petly prejudice, and not mean there will not be sometimes snobbery. The mere slaughter and horror and the
this The best way to stop
soup.
ᄆ
Some
of Hongkong's Indy
fact that one feels a diataste for shame of subjugation to the will drivers seem bent on achieving In còrtain subject or doctrine of n conqueror.
motoriety. cannot excuse a polley of what
might be termed self-isolation- Nevertheless, there is a grain] ism or insulationism. Too many of good within the Peace Pledge
O ☐
These two suggestions by themselves would not be enough to.deal, with a really severe de- Turtle" says pression, if one should come
C
We notice that the Navy is to have longer hammocks. They will stil "Doublo up" in the
The week's new book. A mornings, howover.
are prone to emulate the ostrich Union; more than a grain, por-Knight in Kowloon-by Ella and bury their heads in the sand.haps. It will be interesting to Vanoise. They miss so much that is worth see how Hongkong will react to at least passing observation.
the effort to "achieve a com- munal pence mentality!" AL
ជ ☐
n
O
At Home there's a movement
In the United States they call to prohibit drivers from drink- Why Ing. What about stopping drink-
All this does not mean that first glance this would appear them "Dental Parlours." the public should nceopt the lvary stony ground.
not Drawing Rooma?
ers from driving?
There may be objections to the main point is that these plans these specific suggestions. But or some others should now be
well on the way to completion. The one thing that is inoxcusable- Is to put off the making of plans until the next slump has arrived..
Geoffrey
Crowther