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FRANCE'S FUTURE
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 18,
1927.
40′ milliard (10,000,000,000) paper. francs.
When the Budget calculations were framed, the value of the pound sterling was
about 160
HER MONEY AND DEBTS. The following important state-france and the 40 milliard francs mont was recently contributed to represented a little over six mil- the Daily Chronicle by M. Joseph liard gold franca. “ Cailloux, a former Prime Minister of France:
It is always difficult to speak of the future; but moro particularly difficult is it to answer the ques- tion which is put to me concern- Ing the financial future of France. Between the manner in which I visualise it and that in which I ani sometimes obliged to forecast it there is often some difference. And so, do not expect from me a comprehensive prophette picture. I can only express a few reflec- tions inspired by the present situation and its possible cons- quences.
The first task incumbent upon the French Minister of Finance in these latter days was to put the Budget on a really stable basis.
I must be forgiven for recalling that when I became Finance Min ister at the end of April, 1925, I had already warned the country against the danger of the then existing deficit of several mil- liard francs.
Is The Budget "Balanced?" My frankness laid me open to very fierce attack; but I do not think that it has been fruitless.
It has enabled my successors to obtain more easily the vote for new taxes.
I even confess that, in August last. I thought that M. Poincare was going a little too far in the direction of new taxes,
But that is only a detail, for it is always easy to reduce taxation when the stability of the Budget is practically assured.
Is it so to-day 7
Estimates presented by the Government show an exact balance
At the rate of 120 francs to the pound sterling the Budget of 1927 is equivalent to more than eight| milliard gold franes, which re- presents an increase of 60 per cent. on the pre-war total. "
The instability of the currency. conatantly changes the com- plexion of the financial situation of France.
In October the internal deb amounted to 47 milliard franes. In Decomber it was more than 62 milliards.
If revalorisation was pushed to the extreme limit, and the papor frane became equal to the gold franc, it would then equal 300 mil- liards, or, say, 12 milliard pounda sterling (£12,000,000,000). Ten times more than the French. debt before the war!
Need for a Fixed. Franc. To appreciate those figures at their true value, one can only all- mit that the interests of France and her people lay, and still 8, in a stabilisation which would enable an end to be put to cur rency fluctuations, and would make it possible to fix expenditure at a figure which will cover all
possibilities.
I know as well as anybody how disturbing to the French people is the idea that the value of the: frane might be definitely brought- back to 15 or 20 centimes.
[The franc is at. about 20 can- times now, but is not, of course, definitely stabilised.]
There is not a family in France which has not entrusted to the State a considerable, portion of its patrimony; and from their pointi of view stabilisation ns near as
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But I shall be telling nothing new to anybody by saying that Budget balances are always pro- blematical, until the full year's experience has been revealed."
sirable."
But hard economic and Enancial | facts prohibit" the realisation of this ideal.
France is faced with the im- |perative necessity of reducing the
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The war has almost completely taken away that source of incom", . Some day, I believe, these inter-and it is almost certain that the at the national debts will be wiped off balance of payments is, the slate.
present moment, unfavourable to
In order that this practical test of the Government's projects internal debt, and this will be from nation to nation cause com- the interest on the 50 milliard gold. may be successful several econo done either by stabilising the cur-plex problems, and can only end francs invested in foreign' equn- mie und monetary conditions must reney at a rate which would make in creating a situation as disad-tries. be fulfilled:
the debt a tolerable burden, or by vantageous for the creditors as Fears for 1927.
forced conversion which will for the debtors. I have always considered that mean that Rente holders will re- monetary stability was most essenceive less than the State orgin- tial; and its achievement has, in ally contracted to pay them. my view, been closely associat:1 For home creditors of the State with the problem of balancing the two solutions produce the same the Eudget; stabilisation ought to effect; for the nation as a whole follow and consolidate Budget they do not. equilibrium.
In order that the most stable Budget should not be upset dur- ing the financial year, it is essen- tial that the money to be used by the State and the country during its term should as nearly as pos- sible approximate to the Budget- ary calculations and forecasts.
It does not appear that this coa- dition will be fulfilled in 1927.
To appreciate the preponderat- ing influence exercised by the fluctuating
th exchanges DI financial position of France, one need only recall that before the war the annual expenses of the State amounted to a little more than five milliard gold francs 15,000,000,000 gold franes, about £200,000,000].
When the Frane Fluctuates. The Budget of 1927 amounts to
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But in the meantime the finan-us.
I say "at the present moment" cial situation of France will con- tinue to be affected by the pay- because I have the most absolute ments she will have to make. confider ce. in the industrious Revalorisation, of the franc im- Their repercussion on the na-character of our people and in the mediately increases the incidence tional wealth will vary according power of recovery of our coun of taxation, raises the price of to the compensation that we shall try. money, causes a slackening in be able to obtain from the Dawes business,, and an economic crisis, Plan. and of this we can already see the first symptoms,
It learns quickly the lessons which difficulties teach; and so
I cannot altogether overcome far from despairing I hope to see the anxiety which I feel regarding the impending crisis reduced to a As, however, we do not know yet the balance of the (international)minimum by wise stabilisation, which method the French Govern-payments in the years which lie followed by long eredits, which will allow us not only to get ment has chosen, it is difficult to ahead.
France foresee what will happen.
Before the war
was through the period of monetary clearly in an advantageous. post-difficulty, but also to realise the in- tion in this respect.
calculable unexploited resourena Though the merchandise trade which exist in France and in our! balance was slightly adverse, the Colonial Empire-resources the real balance was largely re-estab-exploitation of which would en- lished in its favour not only by able the French nation to regain the expenditure in France of its former prosperity in the course foreign tourists but above all by lof a few years.
Debts to Other Nations. Another element. of uncertainty with regard to the future of French finances is provided by the problem of international debts.
I have said often, and I can only repeat, that transfers of wealth
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