CO_968_580_DEFENCE_OF_HONG_KONG_1957_1959 — Page 66

LOCAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

HONG KONG

COPY No. 28 LiRage

offo///528

72

22nd September, 1958

SCALE AND NATURE OF A POSSIBLE COMMUNIST

ATTACK AGAINST THE COLONY OF HONG KONG

UNDER CONDITIONS SHORT OF GLOBAL WAR UP

TO THE END OF 1962

Aim

1.

The aim of this report is to estimate the size and

nature of a possible Chinese attack upon Hong Kong under

conditions short of global war up to the end of 1962.

Assumptions

2.

Any attack on the Colony would almost certainly

be accompanied or shortly preceded by internal unrest,

terrorism, sabotage and strikes. This threat is considered

in JIC(57)114(F) dated 21 November 1957, and LIC(HK)9/58

dated March 1958.

3.

An attack on the Colony is possible at an early

stage of limited war between East and West anywhere in the

world, or even in isolation at a time of poor relations

between the United Kingdom and United States Governments.

The problem of Formosa will not have been resolved

4.

by 1962.

5.

A limited war elsewhere in the Far East is not

likely to materially affect the scale and nature of an attack

on Hong Kong.

The Threat

6.

Provided that the Chinese

(a)

believe that an attack on Hong Kong would lead

to a full scale war with the West, or

(b)

continue to value the use that they themselves

are able to make out of the Colony (e.g. foreign

exchange) or

Page 66 01 continue to value the possible influence which the

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