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Dhr. ID 105/68/02(TS)
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8 December, 1958
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The Governor of Hong Kong has sent us a few advance copies of a paper by his Local Intelligence Committee, LIC(HK) 10/58, containing an up-to-date assessment of the "Scale and Nature of a Possible Communist Attack against the Colony of Hong Kong under Conditions short of Global War up to the end of 1962". This paper supersedes LIC(IK) 1 (Final) of the 9th May, 1956, which was taken into account in the preparation of J.I.C.(56)50 (Final). The latter was in turn overtaken by J. I. C.(57)114, which formed the main United Kingdom brief for the Anglo-American discussions which led to the Agreed Estimate of 23rd January, 1958.
The new L. I.C. paper, a copy of which is enclosed, contains conclusions which do not appear to alter our present general assessment of the threat to the Colony, but the L.I.C. place greater emphasis than hitherto on the danger from airborne landings and they do not exclude altogether the possibility that nuclear weapons might be employed in an attack.
The Governor has sent 25 copies of the report to Singapore for the J.I.C.(Far East), suggesting that the latter might wish to forward copies, with any comments they might want to offer, to the J.I.C. in London.
I presume that no communication has yet been received from the J.I.C. (Far East)?
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