(b) Worst case:
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Two armies, one artillery division one sea transport regiment (100,000 all ranke, 250 guns (excluding AA artillery) and 520 medium and heavy mortars.)
We have no means of knowing what tanks might be employed.
7. We do not believe that airborne troops would be used, except possibly in small numbers for their nuisance value, owing to the nature of the ground. There are however 2 dropping zones in the New Territories available. during the dry season.
7.
Surprise Attack. The present tactical deployment of the Chinese forces make it unlikely that they would expect to achieve success by surprise unless the implications of nuclear war has forced a change of view, because Chinese tactical doctrine emphasises, the importance of the concentration of overwhelmingly superior strength. We therefore do not consider this method of attack further.
8. Attack after full preparation., We consider below four possible courses of action which the Chinese might take. In any of these, military operations would be supplemented by riots, strikes and sabotage by Communist sympathisers among the civilian population.
(a) Course A. A massed frontal assault against the main defences in the New Territories. This would be a simple form of attack, with the maximum artillery support. A disadvantage would be the comparatively narrow front (about 8 miles) and the danger of presenting worthwhile nuclear targets to the defence.
(b) Course B. A large scale seaborne assault against the New Territories or Hong Kong Island, or both,,with secondary land attack in the New Territories. A considerable amount of practice would be required and the concentration of shipping might prejudice surprise. Chinese amphibious resources are believed to include only one 3ea Transport Division and this might well be required elsewhere. There would be the serious
The Chinese danger of interference by warships and aircraft. would very likely consider this an excessively hazardous operation.
(c) Course C.
It
A massed frontal assault against the New Territories combined with small diversionary seaborne attacks against the New Territories, Hong Kong Island, or both. might be possible to achieve surprise and confuse the defenders. The small-scale seaborne attacks would be within the capabilities of the Chinese.
(d) Course D. A massed frontal assault against the New Territories combined with strong seaborne attacks against the
This course would New Territories, Hong Kong Island, or both. be the most dangerous as our defences might be our-flanked by substantial Chinese forces. It would however require considerable amphibious concentration and there would be serious danger of interference by warships and aircraft.
9.
It is considered that either Course C or D would be the more likely.
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