TOP SECRET
THE THREAT TO HONG KONG
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Appendix
Mleaning
?
Naval Forces
1. We believe that, in whatever circumstances global war started, the first task of the Chinese Communist and Soviet Far Eastern fleets would be the defence of the mainland. Most of their submarines would therefore be employed in searching for and attacking the carriers of the U.S. carrier task force: cruisers, supported by destroyers, would be held ready for similar employment if the U.S. carriers were to come within range of shore based air cover. It is therefore unlikely that a large force of either Chinese or Russian modern cruisers, destroyers or submarines would be spared to support the communist land forces in the early stages of a global war.
2. Surprise Attack. In the case of a war starting by a surprise attack the immediate naval and amphibious threat could only come from MTB's, amphibious craft and motorised junks which are based close to Hong Kong and in the Pearl River Area. We estimate that the Communists would improvise an escorted amphibious assault for 10-15,000 men accompanied by craft capable
of torpedo attacks and mining and underwater sabotage. Any assault could be supported by gunfire from small naval ships.
3. Attack after full preparation. In the case of a prepared attack the naval threat would, for the reasons given in para- graph 2 above, be augmented by a large force of modern cruisers, destroyers and submarines. The danger would, therefore, come mainly from those additional escorts, MTBs and amphibious craft which could be spared from other operations. We believe that, if no other amphibious operations were planned to take place at the same time, sufficient ships and junks could be found to mount an amphibious assault on Hong Kong of up to 150,000 men supported by escorts, MTBs, minelaying and underwater sabotage.
Land Forces
4. In assessing the land forces likely to be employed in an attack we have considered the Chinese formations available, which are as follows:
5.
(a) The 42nd Army is in the East River area with two
divisions south of the River and one in the Canton
area.
(b) The 47th Army is in the general area 300 miles to the
north.
It seems likely that the attack would be made by a minimum of one Army, supported by one Artillery Division, and a maximum of two Armies supported by one Artillery Division and possibly some Sea Transport units. Assuming units are at 80% strength, the forces likely to be employed against Hong Kong in the best and worst cases are approximately as follows:-
(a) Best case:
One Army, one artillery division (50,000 all ranks, 170 guns (excluding AA artillery) and
260 medium and heavy mortars.)
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TOP SECRET
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