CO_968_451_DEFENCE_OF_HONG_KONG_1955_1956 — Page 53

June, 1955

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THE VULNERABILITY OF HONG KONG TO NON-MILITARY AGGRESSION

(This paper should be read in conjunction with the "Review of Communist Activities in Hong Kong" dated November, 1954. It supersedes that on the "Internal Threat" which formed Appendix F to JIČ(FE)13(Final) of 28th April, 1953).

In our "Review of Communist Activities in Hong Kong" we examined the extent of Communist influence in the Colony. In this paper we consider the ways in which this influence, existing or potential, might be used to embarrass Government, should the Central People's Govern- ment decide to subject the Colony to "non-military aggression" either as a part of the "cold war" or as a prelude or accompaniment to an armed attack. We do not consider, in this paper, the likelihood of either of these eventualities.

2.

ATTITUDE OF THE GENERAL POPULATION

Over 99% of the population of Hong Kong is Chinese. The majority are politically inarticulate and have but one aim in life to survive. In the event of an emergency this aim would, no doubt, cryst- allise into a desire to be on the winning side or at least not to be on the losing one. It seems likely, therefore, that, initially, the majority would do their best to sit on the fence. If there seemed to be a possibility of the CPG shortly taking control of the Colony many would, if not actively assist, at least passively do nothing to oppose them. If, however, the Hong Kong Government and the Armed Forces in the Colony, with the support of HMG, made clear from the outset that they were determined to put down disorders and to defend the Colony, and that they had the means to do so, this would rally waverers and make their active support more likely. Conversely, any signs of weakening would have the most damaging consequences.

3.

Against this background we consider below:-

(a)

Present Communist activities in the Colony.

(b) Likely Communist action in an emergency.

(0) The possible success of such action.

4.

PRESENT COMMUNIST ACTIVITIES

Although certain organisations, such as certain trade unions and schools are clearly Communist-dominated, there is very little in- formation either about the nature of any control exercised by the CPG or about the nature and strength of any overall Communist organisation that may exist in the Colony. If there is an organised Communist Party in Hong Kong, it is probably a part of the Chinese Communist Party rather than an independent local organisation. No accurate estimate of Communist Party or Youth Corps membership can, however, be made.

5.

There are, however, in the Colony a number of official

Page 53 fencies of the CPG, such as the Bank of China, the New China News Agency

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