CO_968_451_DEFENCE_OF_HONG_KONG_1955_1956 — Page 101

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M. 6. J. Carstairs

Page 101.

(THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HER BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT

DRAFT

TO BE RETURNED TO THE SECRTARY JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

J.I.C.(56)50 (Preliminary Draft)

14th May, 1956

CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE

JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

38

NO

THE THREAT TO HONG KONG UP TO 1960

Draft Report by the Joint Intelligence Committee

In this paper we examine the circumstances under which an

attack might be made on Hong Kong, its probable scale and nature

and the extent to which the attack might be reduced by nuclear

counter-action.

2. We believe that in view of the isolated position of Hong Kong and the large preponderance of Chinese conventional forces available in the area, nuclear weapons must be used by the Allies the very

moment the attack begins.

3. We have assumed that, during the period under review, the Chinese will not have developed a nuclear capability of their own nor

now will the Russians give them one.

THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF AN ATTACK

4:

We have appreciated elsewhere that the Communist Chinese are unlikely to embark on a deliberate war so long as it contains

We therefore belie ve the risk of allied nuclear counter-action.

that Hong Kong is not likely to be attacked in conditions short of global war, particularly as the communists will continue to increase their influence by subversion and infiltration and will become increasingly capable of causing trouble for us without

In global war, however, the Chinese recourse to military action.

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