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12.
As regards shipping, the French did not appear to appreciate the large amount of tonnage which would be locked up in maintenance, and expressed their surprise when confronted with the British estimate.
15.
73
Although the Fronch have agreed with our view that the Salonika operation should not be undertaken unless Italy were an assured noutral, we have received the strong impression that, if Yugo-Slevia should find herself at war with Germany, either because she is herself attacked, or because she comes to the assistance of Roumania, the French would wish to intervene as soon as possible, and might even seek a pretext provided Italy were neutral et the time.
The French clearly feel that Italian neutrality is never likely to be assured and that her attitude is much more likely to be undeclared until the last possible moment. It even appears that they might be prepared to take the risk of their sea-communications with Salonika being subsequently interrupted.
The French are in fact, convinced that if Yugo- Slavia is involved in war the Allies could not stand aside and do nothing, and thet positive action on our part would do more than anything else to raise llied prostige in the Middle East, and to deter Italy from actively joining Germany.
14.
We feel that the hypothesis of assured Italian neutrality is not a practical issue, but we have tried to convince the French of the dangers of undertaking an operation at Salonika, and the difficulties of maintenance by sea if there is any risk that Italy will become hostile to the Allies. Although the French have stated that they agree with this view, it scems possible that if any of the Balkan Pact Statos ask for assistance the French may wish to give more weight to the advantages of supporting them than to the implications of a potentially hostile Italy.
Gwydyr Houso, S.W.1.9
5th February, 1940.
(Signed) J.H. MARSHALL-CORNWALL.
Lieut-General.
W.S. CHALMERS.
Rear-Admiral.
R.E. VINTRAS,
Squadron-Loader.
(for British Air Representative)
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