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threat to the capital. The Russians, however, continue to resist vigorously and there is no indication of any collapse before this new offensive.

The eastward thrust south of Tula is also serious and, as mentioned in last week's Résumé, may be aimed either at cutting the Moscow-Ryazan-Voronezh railway, or, more probably, at swinging northwards against Moscow from the line Tula Riazhsk. The result of the new offensives will largely depend on whether the improved weather conditions hold. A sudden thaw, which is probable at this time of the year, might well bring operations to a standstill.

The Germans may be expected to continue their thrust in the Rostov sector, with the object of crossing the River Don as quickly as possible and then beginning their drive into Caucasia.

Operations.

Libya.

Enemy Forces and Dispositions.

21. Prior to the opening of the campaign enemy forces in Cyrenaica were believed to consist of—

(a) German Afrika Corps—

15th Armoured Division

21st Armoured Division

} German,

55th Savona Infantry Division,

located roughly in the area Bardia-Sollum-Sidi Omar.

(b) Italian 21st Corps-

17th Pavia Infantry Division,

25th Bologna Infantry Division, 27th Brescia Infantry Division,

with a stiffening of German infantry, investing Tobruk.

(c) Italian 10th Corps-

132 Ariete Armoured Division,

101 Trieste Motor Division,

102 Trento Motor Division,

in reserve in the area El Adem-El Gobi-Bir Hachim to the south of Tobruk.

The German armoured divisions were on a colonial establishment and contained only one armoured regiment each (in addition to infantry regiments, supporting artillery, &c.). The 132 Ariete Armoured Division was thought to be about the equivalent of a British armoured brigade. In all, it was estimated that the Axis disposed of some 387 tanks, apart from obsolescent and very light tanks.

The task of containing the Tobruk garrison fell in the main to Italian forces, consisting of three infantry divisions and elements of one motorised. division. They were also responsible for the defence of outposts, such as the remote Jalo oasis, 260 miles south-west of Tobruk.

Own Forces and Plan.

22. As far as is known, General Auchinleck's intentions were—

(a) to bring about a tank battle, with the particular object of destroying the

German 15th and 21st Armoured Divisions;

(b) at the same time, to roll up the enemy's forces in the frontier area

Sollum-Bardia-Sidi Omar from the south and south-west.

To provoke the tank battle, the plan was to advance on Tobruk with cruiser tank formations via Fort Maddalena and El Gobi with the object of forcing the enemy to leave his laager positions and fight in the open. The Tobruk garrison was to co-operate.

The attack on the enemy in the frontier area was to be carried out primarily with unarmoured formations supported by "I" tanks.

In addition, a third force was to advance from Jarabub on Jalo, in Western Cyrenaica, a distance of 180 miles.

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