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8.
In telegram 1457 he is reported as being "perfectly prepared to provoke Germany when the right moment came, but that was not yet".
German Reactions.
9.
There are reports that Germany intends to attack Greece early in March. It is quite possible, therefore, that she wants to keep the Balkans quiet until then.
It is also considered that Germany is bent on developing and perfecting, without interruption, the arrangements for transporting oil from Roumania. A Balkan outbreak would militate against this.
10.
If we establish air forces at Salonika, Germany cannot be certain whether they are intended for action against Italy or against the oilfields. If we use Lemnos or Mitylene the Germans will be left in no doubt as to our intention to strike at the Roumanian oilfields.
11.
The above views are supported by a report which has been prepared by the Future Operations (Enemy) Planning Section.
Turkey.
12.
If Bulgaria attacks Greece or if Germany goes through Bulgaria to attack Greece, Turkey is bound by treaty to assist her. In the Foreign Office view the flight of German aircraft over Bulgaria to attack Greece would not, in itself, involve Turkey.
Our own Interests.
13.
Our action should be governed by our strategic interests and not by possible German reactions.
14.
The advantages of establishing air forces now at Salonika are
15.
(a) We may not be able to do so later.
(7) We can increase the scale of air attack
on Italy.
(c) We can threaten the Roumanian oilfields.
(a)
Such action may upset the German plans and
make him stir up the Balkan cauldron before he is ready.
(e) We shall be ready to harass the Germans
if they advance South.
The main disadvantage is that General Metaxas is fairly certain to call upon us to give an undertaking as to the form and scale of our assistance if our action provokes a German attack.
16.
Our answer clearly depends on the outcome of operations in the Middle East. If we concentrate on
+ F.0.(E) S.(41) 1.
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