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32.

From the above considerations, dealing with direct attack on England by invasion or blockade it is concluded that:-

(a)

Germany will make every effort to invade the United Kingdom as early as possible;

(b) While preparing for invasion, and in case

1

invasion does not prove to offer sufficient prospects

f success Germany will strengthen her blockade

measures by every possible means.

These include:

(i)

The utmost effort at sea;

(ii)

Closer co-ordination between sea and

air effort than has hitherto been

the case, by attacking cargoes at ports of arrival as well as at sea;

A further step, which will largely depend on the situation in Spain, may be:

(iii)

The occupation of Spain and Portugal in order to extend the blockade measures at sea and interfere with British navigation of the Straits of Gibraltar.

33. There are certain other courses, not directly connected with the early overthrow of England, which are open to Germany. These include, as being the most probable:-

34,

(a) Assistance to Italy in Albania and Libya;

(70)

(c)

Invasion of Greece through Bulgaria and, possibly, Yugoslavia.

An advance south-eastwards towards the Bosphorus and Dardanelles with a view

to operations in the Middle East.

(ā) The occupation of Unoccupied France.

(e) The occupation of Italy.

In regard to 33(a) above, assistance to Italy in Albania and Libya; it has been stated above, (para.4) that Germany cannot afford to see Italy entirely overthrown

Failing this danger, without c.ning to her assistance.

which is not imminent, the present indications are that Hitler does not intend to aid Italy on a large scale.

Hopes which were once entertained of an invasion of Egypt have been dissipated. No large scale German intervention in Libya is to be anticipated.

In regard to Albania intervention, probably limited to some air asistance and specialist troops, may be expected to the degree necessary to prevent an Italian

llapse in this region.

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