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In existing circumstances, with Spain and Portugal neutral and an effective Allied hold on the Straits of Gibraltar, it is unlikely that our enemies will attempt to establish air or naval bases in any of these islands. They might try to interfere with our South Atlantic cables which run through the Cape Verdes after having passed through either the Azores or Madeira; but the importance of these cables is not sufficient to justify our occupying the cable stations in existing circumstances. While Spain and Portugal are clearly and genuinely neutral, therefore, we should not take action against any of these islands unless our enemies attempt to occupy them or are evidently about to make the attempt.
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If Spain comes in against us our enemies will have air and naval bases on the mainlands of Spain and Africa and in the Canaries, and we shall probably lose effective control of the Straits of Gibraltar. The main effects of this will be:-
(a)
(10)
Our trade will have to be routed further to the westward so as to keep clear of the Cenaries and Spain, and will therefore pass closer to the Azores than at present.
THE CANARIES.
6.
The chances of the enemy seizing the Portuguese
Islands are much increased.
If we occupy Grand Canary and Teneriffe we deny to the enemy the use of air and naval bases and can if we wish use these bases for ourselves,
77.
Denial to the enemy is not of outstanding importance in view of the facts that:-
8.
(a) Our trade can be routed well to the westward. (70) There are air bases and harbours in Spanish territory on the adjacent mainland.
Use of bases in the Canaries is not at present of importance, as, if unable to use Gibraltar, we might still hope to use Casablanca as a fuelling base. If France goes out of the war, however, and we are no longer able to use Casablanca, the Canaries would be of importance to us as providing the nearest bases to the Straits of Gibraltar that we could hope to hold,
9.
We estimate that the minimum forces required to capture and hold Grand Canary and Teneriffe for the use of the Navy (see Annex) to be
Army
Two infantry brigades of which one might
be Royal Marines, each with Field Ambulance and Field Company.
One Field battery (25-pdr.)
One light A. A. Regiment.
One heavy A. A. Regiment.
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