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MOST SECRET AND PERSONAL.

DRAFT TELEGRAM FOR TRANSMISSION TO PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA, AUSTRALIA,

SOUTH AFRICA AND NEW ZEALAND.

28

19

1. •

In continuation of my telegram

(recent Z telegram).

2.

His Majesty's Government have recently reviewed situation which might arise if French resistance were to collapse and British Empire were compelled to fight on single-handed. We wish to keep you in closest touch with thought here on this subject. You will appreciate vital importance of maintaining absolute secrecy on this subject. Moreover, at this stage, whilst France is still fighting strongly and Italian action is yet obscure, any review of whole situation must clearly be considered as provisional.

3.

We should, of course, continue the fight single-handed with or without American assistance, but we estimate that without full economic and financial assistance of whole of American continent our chances of defeating Germany would be remote.

4.

In situation envisaged, first problem will be to ensure security of United Kingdom against concentrated German attack. This attack might take following forms:-

Breaking public morale by unrestricted

air attack.

5.

(a)

(b)

(c)

Starvation of country by attack on shipping

and ports.

Occupation by invasion.

Chances of Germany achieving success in any of these methods depends mainly on our ability to maintain our air forces in being. We must expect widespread destruction, considerable dislocation of industry and communications, and heavy casualties. It will be of extreme importance to obtain quantities of aircraft from America and to keep our sea routes open.

6.

We estimate that we shall be able to maintain proportion of our sea-borne trade, but we shall have to restrict imports even more drastically than at present, and we shall probably have to depend upon west coast ports alone. Some measure of evacuation of women and children to the Empire and United States of America will be necessary. We know we can count on your full co- operation in this respect,

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