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FOOD:

26. The German people are at present fairly adequately.-- if monotonously fed, The rations are still well above the level of the year 1918.

27. As regards prospects from the beginning of next winter onwards, however, there has been a marked change for the worse. The next harvest promises to be moderate at best both in Germany and in the Danubian countries, while in Italy it promises to be only average and not up to the bumper levels of the last three years. In Germany itself a serious blow has been the destruction of a large part of the potato reserves. The supply of feeding stuffs for producing meat and animal fats, including butter, already one of the main weaknesses of the pre-war food front, has become shorter, largely through the failure of Russia to provide the quantities expected. Other factors adversely affecting the food out- look till the 1941 harvest are:-

28.

(a) A shortage of skilled agricultural labour, both

in Germany and in the adjacent neutral countries which have been forced to mobilise large

numbers of men.

(b) Lack of draught animals and petrol for tractors. (c) Difficulty in preventing the spread of animal

diseases, some of which seem to be on the increase.

All the territories occupied are, without exception, a food liability in one respect or another. All of them face the prospect of something approaching famine next winter and some of them even earlier. Apart from a rapidly diminishing supply of fats from Denmark, the occupied territories can make no contribution to Germany's food supplies once the stocks seized on invasion are exhausted. The principal effect of these seizures will probably be to defer for a few weeks the crisis in the German fats situation, which, according to all available information, seems likely to occur in the middle of 1941. Not only can Italy not send Germany any substantial supplies of staple food- stuffs, but she will now be competing more intensively than before with her ally for such supplies as can be obtained from the Balkans. The closing of the Italian leak in the Allied blockade confines the possible sources of Axis supply to the adjacent neutrals and Russia.

Communications.

29.

Railways: The railways of Germany have stood up satisfactorily to all military and industrial demands and the efficient handling of the Italian coal traffic supports this view. The recovery from the difficulties of the winter appears to have been practically complete.

30.

Waterways: These are believed to have been in full working order since the March thaw.

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