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156
Lead: Booty, especially from Belgium, has much improved the situations Italy may be short but Germany
is unlikely to be really short before mid-1941.
16.
Zinc: No shortage.
17.
Aluminium: Supply a little tight on account of the extent of substitution for other metals. Bauxite adequate, and unless there is extensive damage to production plant there will be no trouble.
18. Ferro-alloys. Definite reports of shortages, though not yet on a serious scale. These are countered by substitution of lower grade special steels. Some deterioration in quality but not much in quantity. serious effect yet on quantity production of arms.
196
No
Rubber: By the Autum, supplies in all forms will only just be meeting consumption; if consumption continues at a high rate, or if buna production is not up to expectation, a serious position will result.
20 a
Leather: No serious shortage at the moment owing to loot from invasion, Will have to slaughter anyhow on account of fodder shortage and food requirements. Tanning materials still very important and likely to be short this summer, but domestic sources can probably be made to meet requirements.
21.
Timber: No serious shortage except of hard woods. But only by dint of heavy cutting.
22. Petroleum: Position is serious. Total supplies are unlikely to hamper continuation of active warfare on present scales for perhaps another two or three months. Thereafter we may expect a gradual slowing up of effort in order to reduce consumption and replenish stocks. This process can be accelerated by effective air action against synthetic plants and stocks, the former accounting for nearly half estimated 1940 supplies. Some increase from Rumania is expected in June and thereafter, but supplies hitherto far below expectation. Russia still hanging fire. Possibly some assistance from Italy whose stocks are now larger than Gerinan.
23.
Textiles: Great shortage of cotton replaced by artificial fibres. Principal difficulty is wool. Substantial relief from Belgium and Holland. Very severe rationing of imports of finished goods a good sign, may be difficult to replace stage of uniforms without considerable deterioration in quality, i.e. admixture of synthetic and cotton. Flax supplies now allowing some substitution for other fibres. A good deal of soft hemp captured (a year's supply) but hard hemp short.
240
Chemicals and Explosives:
No shortage.
25,
War Materials. There is no likelihood of any quarblative shortage of war stores as a whole. The most that can be hoped for is some falling off in quality if the war continues on the present scale.
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