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13

PLANS TO MEET A CERTAIN EVENTUALITY.

Draft Aide Memoire for His Majesty's Ambassador at Washington.

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In the event of France being forced to capitulate, we intend to continue the struggle. The situation which would confront us would be as follows:-

General Situation.

2

All French European and Northern African territory and resources would become available to the enemy in due course, though elements of the fleet and certain forces in the French Empire might continue to assist in the war. It is by no means improbable however, that the French might be forced to hand over their fleet and our enemies would thereby gain a considerable accession of naval strength. All existing European neutrals, with the possible exception of Turkey, would eventually fall under German or Italian military or economic domination and our position in the Mediterranean and the Middle East might be ultimately reduced to denying the Suez Canal to the enemy. The attitude of India might be doubtful, but, with the possible exception of Eire, the whole Empire would increase their efforts in our support. Japan might attempt a more

Russia would actively opportunist policy in the Far East.

probably become alarmed at Germany's success and cease to assist her.

Ability to Defeat Germany.

3

We consider that in these circumstances the defeat of Germany could still be schieved but only by a combination of economic pressure, air attack on economic objectives in Germany, with consequent effect on German morale, and the creation of widespread revolt in the conquered territories.

4.

It would be essential to secure the British Isles as the main base for the operation of naval and air forces since we could not maintain our air offensive against Germany from the American Continent nor employ our fleet effectively unsupported by the naval resources of this country.

The final issue will therefore hang at first on our ability to withstand the great offort which the enemy is likely to make against us in the immediate future. If we can withstand the effects of large scale air attack against our industry, our ports and seaborne trade and centres of population, and still maintain sufficient first line strength, especially fighters, to deny air superiority over this country and its approaches, we may hope to resist invasion successfully. Our aircraft industry, however, is extremely vulnerable. There is moreover an acute shortage of destroyers. If our air defence diminishes and the enemy gains the full advantages of air superiority, a determined effort to invade this country might succeed.

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