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only by the consideration that there should be a reasonable probability that the organisation of the force, its transport overses, and the accomplishment of its enterprise would be completed before the British fleet could intervene, that is, in accordance with the assumption laid down, within a month from the outbreak of war. As the military forces of Japan are highly organised and of enormous strength, the sise of the expeditionary force that she could bring to bear against Hong Kong in one month would probably be limited only by the amount of shipping that she could collect in her ports for transport purposes, see Appendix V to this Memorandum.

20. For the purpose of calculating the standard of local defences required under the conditions laid down by the Committee of Imperial Defence, it is considered that in the case of a war with Japan the following forms of attack on Hong Kong must he regarded as reasonably probable:—

(a.) Attack by a squadron of armoured ships closing with and attempting to run past the batteries with a view to gaining access to the inner waters of the barbour. When the inner waters had been reached an attempt would be made to land men from the ships under cover of their guns, and capture the place by a coup-de-main.

(b.) Long-range bombardment by a squadron of battleships with a view to the

destruction of the naval dockyard or of warships lying in the harbour. (c.) Raids by night by unarmoured cruisers on merchant shipping lying in the

harbour.

(d.) Attacks by sea-going torpedo craft with a view to the destruction of the

docks or warships lying in the harbour.

(e.) Attack by a formidable expeditionary force landed on or in the vicinity of

Hong Kong, and supported by a squadron of armoured ships.

VI.—Standard of Heavy Armament.

21. Admiral Lambton holds the view that the existing heavy armament of Hong Kong is so weak that it could offer no effective resistance against attack by battle-ships. He considers that:-—

"The least possible minimum that can be accepted is an armament at each entrance equal to that of one modern battle-ship (Tsingtau already exceeds this); and as all nations are building "Dreadnoughts' they must be the standard [ten 12-inch guns]. This would still leave us with a great numerical inferiority in guns, but if full advantage were taken of the land positions and they were impregnably mounted, our gunners can be relied on to hold opposing battle-ships at bay for the few weeks necessary for reinforcements to arrive.

"Of late years an erroneous axiom has been accepted that fleets fear forts-the corollary has always been forgotten, and that is that the fortress must be first class, such as Vladivostock in these waters now is and Toulon was in the old wars. Inferior fortifications have always succumbed. I have carefully gone into the subject, and believe there is no one single case on record in which a fortress with either numerically inferior or weaker guns has resisted a properly handled battle-fleet."

In support of these views Admiral Lambton instances the heavy armament that other Powers have mounted for the protection of their naval bases, details of which are given in the Table printed in the sub-enclosure of Enclosure 1 of Appendix I to this Memorandum.

The Inspector-General of the Forces is also of opinion that the armament covering the eastern entrance to the harbour is inadequate. He recommends :-

That an additional armament of two 92-inch guns be provided; that a site be chosen on "an elevated plateau known as 'Dragon's Back,' above Point d'Aguilar, for a battery to be “armed with these guns.

"I have personally reconnoitred the position, which is also well known to the military "authorities of the island. A battery thus posted will command the southern approaches from “the sea in a sufficient degree to oppose effectively transports supported by cruisers attempting "to effect a landing. It will also be so situated as to cover by its fire the approach to the outer "eastern entrance, and by acting in unison with Gough's and Pottinger's a heavy cross fire "could be brought to bear on any warships which come under view of the latter batteries.”

22. The primary armament as at present approved for Hong Kong was designed to deter long-range bombardment, which has hitherto been regarded as the only reasonably probable form of attack by armoured ships.

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