CAB129-37 — Page 88

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being able to deny as much as possible of the Middle East to an enemy in time of wapagths of the97stablished policy of His Majag's Government, who have accepted the thesis that the security of the Middle East is vital to the security of the United Kingdom.

The United States

7. It must be recognised that it would be impossible for His Majesty's Government to hold the Middle East in a major war without the assistance of the United States. It is therefore necessary not merely that the United Kingdom and the United States should not be rivals in the Middle East, working one against the other, but that the two countries should as far as possible have a common policy. 8. Apart from the problem of Palestine, American policy towards the Middle East has for some time past been crystallising on lines similar to our own. In particular there is a common approach to the problems of Greece, Turkey and Persia, to defence, and to the promotion of social and economic advancement. The United States Government has undertaken to help His Majesty's Government to maintain their position in the Middle East. On Palestine alignment of policy is now much nearer.

Danger of Communism

9.

Communist influence has recently been extended over a large part of China. There is a grave risk of its further extension into South-East Asia. If the Middle East were also to fall under Communist control the cause of the democratic countries would suffer a crippling blow. The economic recovery of the United Kingdom and Western Europe would be gravely affected. The way would be opened for the spread of Communism into Africa. The position of Turkey, Greece and Italy would be largely undermined. The ability of Russia to wage a successful war against the West would be greatly increased. defence of the United Kingdom in the event of war would be compromised.

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10. But we must face the fact that many of the conditions which favoured the extension of Communism in China exist in the Middle East. Communism has thriven best on ignorance, misery and poverty. His Majesty's Government were largely responsible for the emergence of most of the Middle East countries as independent and self-governing peoples. But the transition from centuries of Turkish misrule to self-government under modern world conditions is a difficult one. Corruption, inefficiency and poverty are still endemic. The standard of living of the mass of the people is appallingly low, and the contrast with the wealth of the small and selfish ruling classes is glaring. In spite of the contradic- tion between the principles of the Moslem Religion and of Communism, there are almost classic opportunities for Communist agitation by the exploitation of hardship, chaos and discontent.

11. To prevent the Middle East falling behind the iron curtain must be a major objective of our policy and, therefore, merits a high priority in effort and contribution.

Economic Effort

12. A review is at present being undertaken of social and economic develop- ment in the Arab countries and Persia.

Egypt, Iraq and Transjordan

Strategic Policy

13. His Majesty's Government have Treaties of Alliance with Egypt (ex piring in 1956), Iraq (expiring in 1957 with right of review in 1952) and Trans jordan (expiring in 1968). These Treaties provide for the stationing of certain minimum forces in peace-time, the right of entry in an apprehended emergency and the provision of facilities in war-time. It must be noted that these Treaties are not permanent, and that the Treaties with Egypt and Iraq expire at dates which are particularly awkward in terms of Russian preparedness.

14. Discussions with Egypt for defence arrangements on a different basis arpnow sheing held, But it must not be assumed that they will be successful.

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