CAB129-33 — Page 63

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I should welcome especially any action which the 4 chancellor of th

I SExchequer could take to overcome these difficulties.

Brazil has ceased to export and shows signs of becoming a net importer. European sources of supply are recovering but slowly. Denmark contracted to supply us with 11,000 tons in 1948 but delivered only 3,000 tons. We cannot rely on more than

2 - 3,000 tons from there this year. 2,000 tons but not more. Yugoslavia the past two years we have failed to consignment.

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France may provide 1 or offered some meat but for obtain even a trial

The ration level of carcase meat in 1949. Our total supplies of carcase meat and offal in 1949 will amount to 1,622,000 tons. How much can we consume? We are in our · present difficulties because we started the year with a stock of only 157,000 tons. It is imperative that we should avoid another meat crisis at this time next year. So I think it essential that we should build up our stocks to 200,000 tons by January, 1950 - a little below the stock level of the end of 1947. If we do that we shall be able to plan on the assumption that 1,579,000 tons is available for consumption in 1949. This would be sufficient for an average weekly ration of carcase meat of 10.24d. as compared with an average of 10.8d. in 1948. However, the average conceals the marked variation in the seasonal supply of home killed meat. The substantial proportion of home killed supplies becomes available in the last six months of the year.

In fact, from the beginning of September to the end of November, home killed supplies will provide 1/- ration of carcase meat per week over most of the country. Supplies cannot be levelled out by delaying slaughter or by freezing supplies for storage. So it follows that the supply for some months must be below 10d. if the average for the year is to be 10.42.

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8.

Supply prospects for corned meat in 1949. Appendix C shows our estimates of the corned meat position for 1949. We hope to get 67,000 tons of canned corned meat in 1949 · 40,000 tons from the Argentine, 17,000 tons from the Southern Commonwealth countries, and the balance from other South American countries. We could only get more at the expense of our carcase meat supplies. At the beginning of the year we had 66,000 tons in stock, so we will have 133,000 tons available. Here again we must be prudent and build up our reserves by the end of the year. It has been my aim to hold 80,000 tons at the end of the year as an emergency reserve to cover the danger of breakdown in supplies of carcase meat, strikes and other emergencies. Provided we get. the supplies we hope for, we could achieve this if we stopped distributing canned meat at the end of April. In that case the supplies of corned meat on the ration in 1949 would average 0.6d. per week as compared with 1.3d. per week in 1948.

9.

The total meat ration in 1949. We cannot take any firm decision now on the general level of the meat ration in 1949. So much depends on the Argentine. The negotiations which are now taking place there may enable us to make firmer estimates in a few weeks' time. Our present estimate is that total supplies will provide an average weekly ration in 1949 of 10.84d. per week (10.24 carcase + 0.6 corned meat) as compared with 12.1a. per week in 1948 (10.8d. carcase and 1.3d. canned meat). Because the home, killed supplies in 1949 will inevitably entail giving a 1/- ration during the later months of the year we cannot avoid a ration of 10d. for some months earlier in the year.

I therefore recommend that the total ration should be reduced to 10d. per week on 20th March.