CAB129-33 — Page 62

5.

Canned corned meat. It is not possible to maintain the total carcase meat ration at 1/- by increasing the canned corned meat share of it from 2d. to 4d. My Department has tried to maintain a reserve of 80,000 tons of canned corned beef to cover all emergency purposes. But at the end of 1948 we had run it down to 66,000 tons and the drain on it has continued so that now we have only 50,000 tons. If we continue to draw on our reserves at the present rate (2d. worth per week requires 2,600 tons) our stocks will fall to the low level of 10,000 tons by the end of July. I think that we can continue to issue 2d. worth of canned corned meat until May but I propose that we should re-examine this before the Easter Recess. It may well be that for a time this summer we shall have to face the grim prospect of cutting out the issue of any canned corned beef even if the carcase meat ration is only 8d.

6.

Supply prospects of Carcase Meat for the whole of 1949. Appendix B shows our estimate of the supplies of carcase meat and offal in 1949 from all the possible supplying countries. My officials have searched the world for meat with the result that we hope to get 1,622 thousand tons of carcase meat in 1949 as compared with 1,595 thousand tons in 1948. I set out below notes on the various countries.

United Kingdom and Eire. It is convenient to include Eire with the United Kingdom since Eire's main contribution will be in the form of stores for fattening here. Although we hope to get 90% of Eire's exportable supplies of cattle, her fat cattle and exports of carcase meat will not provide us with more than about 20,000 tons. In all the United Kingdom and Eire will provide 758,000 tons in 1949 as compared with 720,000 tons in 1948.

Southern Commonwealth Countries. Supplies from Australia and New Zealand are estimated at 510,000 tons in 1949 • about the same as in 1948. No spectacular increase can be expected. the other hand there is always the danger that drought or shipping delays may endanger part of these supplies.

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Argentina . Argentina is the only country from which we can hope for any substantial supplies of meat in the short term. The recent strike of workers in the meat packing industry may partly account for the falling off in shipments in the early months of this year. But the main reason for the low shipments have been the deliberate policy adopted by Senor Miranda. failed to pass on to the meat packers any part of the £10,000,000 side payment made by the United Kingdom and he encouraged the sales of meat at high prices to the United States Army and to European countries. It is thought that he proposed to export only 183,000 tons to the United Kingdom in 1949. It will take some little time to re-establish confidence in the Argentine meat packing and livestock rearing industry but it is hoped that the change in regime will be of benefit to our negotiators who are now in Buenos Aires. We are asking for 480,000 tons of meat but do not expect to get more than 310,000 tons, and have used that figure in estimating supplies in this review.

Other countries Our buyers have tried every possible source but the rest of the world can only provide us with 44,000 tons in 1949. Even if we had the dollars there is unlikely to be much meat available for export in the United States or Canada. Uruguay, Guatamala and Chile are providing modest but useful quantities. Mexico offers a possible source in the future but as yet agate 488een able to overcane the page of 14881. em.

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