THE NORTHERN CRISIS.
(Daily Press, 29th December.) The Christmas holidays have passed by apparently without scing any change in the situation up North. The papers brought down by steamers arriving from Shanghai and Japan are naturally very fall of talk about war chances and preparations. Re- ports of the mobilisation of the Japanese army were current in Tokyo in the middle of last week, but nothing is known so far to justify them. The Japanese Government was also reported to have chartered ten steamers belonging to prominent shipping companies, but with regard to three of them, according to the Kobe correspondent of the N-C. Daily News, the Nippon Yusen Kai. sha has denied the report. Similar rumours are rife. But it is known that negotiations still hold the field, which will not be occupied by arms until negotiations fail. Our Shanghai morning contemporary's Tokyo representative stated last week that, in his conference with Baron Rossy on Monday, Baron KOMURA demanded that Russia should reconsider her recent unsatis factory reply; but iu Tokyo it is considered that Russia is now unable to make farther concessions. The correspondent continues:
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The situation is most grave. A casus belli will possibly be found in Corea, although Japan's chief contentions largely concern Manchuria." This is supported by the Kobe correspondent of the same paper, who says that the Russian reply to Japan denies that Manchuria is in the scope of the negotiations with Japan, and challenges Japan's view of the situation in Corea. "Corea is now the crux of the difficulty," he adds. From these and from other sources it seems now agreed that Russia has put aside the question of Manchuria as out of Japan's sphere of interest altogether. Russia indeed subscribes to au article ap- pearing earlier this month in the Novoe Fremya from the pen of SIROMTAT NIKOFF, a.well-known Russian writer. The article declares that Russia cannot restore either the whole or a portion of Manchuria to China; the Manchu dynasty is now recog. nised as a thing of the past. With regard to the Manchus, it may be admitted that there is very little of the dynasty left in the present. But that this practical extinction does away with the connection of Manchuria with the Chinese Empire or with the treaty rights of other Powers in Manchuria, Russia can hardly expect Chium or the Powers to accept without further protest In endea- vouring to transfer her dispute with Japan to Corean affairs alone, she has shown no little diplomatic skill, which, however, she seems likely to nullify by being over obstinate in Corea. It was thought that she might try to buy Japan off in the Man- churian question by concessions in Corea, seeing that Japan was at the same time ber most pressing opponent in Manchuria and the dominant figure in Corea. Now, how ever, there are indications to show that even apathetic China is stirring about the Man- churian question (after how long!), and it is said that a new Anti-Russian Society" is gaining members rapidly, even in the South, where the future of Manchuria might not be thought a matter of great concern.
REUTER'S news still continues to echo the pacific note from S. Petersburg. This note begin to grow less pleasing to the ear the longer it continues, in the absence of any thing more tangible than mere sound. It is interesting to see that, according to REUTER, the Russian newspapers are dis- playing great irritation against the English Press, whose attitude seems to excite even greater animosity than is displayed against
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
[January 2, 1904
Army, 8,588,117 yen; Navy, 3,160,492 yen. No very notable increase occurred till 1896-97, when after the victorious war against China, the Army expenditure was raised to 22,613,590 ven and the Navy to 7,351,330. The rise has been steady since, and we find the estimated expenditures for the financial years 1902-03 and 1903-04 as follows:-Army, 38,432, 317 an 38,495,727 yen; Navy, 10,837,646 and 10,563,532 yen. Turning to the extraordinary expenditure, this was high between 1896 and 1902, the Army reaching 38,714,310 yen in 1900-01 and the Navy 47,338,427 in 1898-99. Its estimated amount since is small.
the Japanese." The attitude of the English | account rose faster than the Army for som Press, to which objection is made, is of time, and in 1882-88 the figures were course one of sympathy with Japan, extend- ing in some cases (as we think it should) to a declaration that Britain cannot see Japan crushed by Russia. Naturally the Russian newspapers feel that were Britain indifferent things would be easy for them, and there might be hopes of that "threefold lever" acting again, which robbed Japan of the chief spoils of her victory over China and transferred the bulk of them to Russia Indeed at Tientsin, we read, a rumours been current that the "threefold lever" is to work again. This may be dismissed at once; Japan does not stand now isolated as in 1895. Britain is not now indifferent. And on the desires of France and Germany it would now be less easy to play, whereas then it was safe. There will be no unfriend- ly pressure put on Japan to make her give way before Russia. She can this time "call Russia's hand," has indeed done so, and it must come down when that still undelivered reply is forthcoming.
In some remarks on the budgets for 1902-03 and 1903-04 the compiler of the Annual explains that owing to the dissolution of the Diet the budget for the seventeenth session was not passel, so that the pre vious year's budget is to be carried out for 1903-04, according to the provision of the Japanese Constitution; the budget scheme to be carried out for 1903-04 consists of the two estimates. The most notable points in the 1903-04 estimate compared with the former year's are an increase in the ordinary revenue from income tax, sake tav, sugar excise, and tobacco-leaf monopoly, "along with the development of general conditions of economy and the growth of the national wealth"; a decrease of the extraordinary revenue, there being no proceeds as in the preceding year from the sale of Chinese indemnity bonds; an increase of ordinary civil and expenditure owing to more military pensions and larger expenditure on education, Army, Navy, and communica tions; and a decrease of extraordinary expenditure, the repayment of a temporarý loan in connection with the Boxer troubles having been completed, and through the approaching completion of the military and naval programmes unusual outlay on such objects decreasing.
(Daily Press, 31st December.) The decision come to at Monday's Cabinet meeting at Tokyo is one of the highest im- portance, not because it shows the deep earnestness of Japan at the present juncture (for that we knew already), but because it reveals the manner in which Japan hopes to meet the enormous call upon her which will be entailed by war. Among other steps it was decided to authorise the Government to raise a temporary loan and issue ex- chequer bonds, if necessary. No doubt Japan was encouraged by the ease in raising the new loan after the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Convention had been made; though she cannot disgise the fact that the peaceful circumstances of that time and the stormy surroundings of to-day are widely different. But it must not be forgotten that there are such things as loans of ex- pedience, a notable feature of British policy on the Coutinent in past European history.
It would be tedious to give more figures, It is interesting at the present moment to look though there is a lot that is instructive at the financial position of Japan as set among their serried rows. However, it will forth in the Financial and Economical Annual be seen from what we have quoted that of Japan, recently issued for the Depart Japan has not large sums of money to play ment of Finance at Tokyo. Among its with, nor, on the other hand, is she în a pages is a table of the annual State revenue desperate position. She has every ground and expenditure, pertaining to the general for caution in undertaking a struggle such Unlike account, from the years 1867-68 to 1908-04. as that with Russia would be. Herein we see Japan rising from a revenue
a reckless gambler, she has a great of 33,089,313 yen and an expenditure of deal to lose. But, as we have frequently 30,505,086 yen-surplus, 2,584,227 yen- stated before, she cannot afford to lose to a revenue (estimated) of 251,681,961 aud through inaction, any more than through an expenditure (estimated) of 244,752,346 war. Nor can Great Britain afford to see yen-surplus, 6,929,615 yen. There her lose by either means. Happily there have of course been many fluctuations. are indications that Britain is in this The revenue was at its highest figure in instance prepared for all eventualities. It 1900-01, when it reached 295,854,868 yen. is no secret that every ship in our China Its lowest in the last fourteen years squadron, and every man in the Navy and was the 98,170,028 yen of 1894-95, the time Army out here, is under orders to be ready. of the war with China. The highest expen. If war broke out to-morrow, it would not diture was in 1900-01, 292,750,059 yen. find our forces a day behind. Naturally, Since 1897 the expenditure has never been
we should have a period of neutrality at the below 200,000,000 yen. In 1896-97 it was beginning. There is no reason why this 168,856,508 yen; before then it never reached should not continue, if the Japanese prove 90,000,000 you. Not since 1874 has there victorious. But it is impossible to imagine been a deficit, but in 1888-84 there was no
that any Government in England could surplus either. The largest surplus was passively watch a Russian victory without the 33,115,541 yen of 1895-96; in the next intervention. Indeed it seems to us that financial year it fell to 18,162 915 yen, and now is the time for a strong declaration en has only once touched 7,000,000 yen since. the part of Great Britain, before hostilities
commence, if commence they must.
A table of the annual appropriation of the State expenditure has some interesting figures of the ordinary cost of the Ariny and Navy to Japan. In 1867-68, the joint cost was 1,059,798 yen. In 1870-71, the last year in which the accounts were together, the cost was 3,252,966 yen. In 1871-72 7,699,847 yen were assigned to the Army and 1,869,044 to the Navy. The Navy
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A performance was given in Christmas week of two short Perfidy and 4 Pantomime Claude MacDonald was the chief organiser, and the proceeds were given to the Union Jack Club in London, a club open to all soldiers, allor marines on leave or adrift.
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