1941-03-06 — Page 4

Thursday,

HONGKONG TELEGRAPH

March 6, 1941.

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PREPAREDNESS IN H.K.

The Rt. Hon. HUGH-DALTON,

Minister of Economic Warfare, in an interview Maurice Webb, answers the question

with

CAN we expect positive

and from the economic blockade of the enemy before this year is out?

docisive results

~ ~ ♫

Can

Our

Blockade

·Fourth Article

RIDDLES OF 1941

Win?

"This, because they will be their control can be made self- driven to other devices by no supporting. "What have you to tain German experts by rail again

:

This is the question I took round to the Ministry of Econo- mic Warfare. I put it, with

"There is one answer. Transport. many supplementaries, before

Con is desperately needed to main- some of the experts there.

-and to feed her expensive 'Ersatz' Then I marched with my means so satisfactory, will add any to that?" I asked.

industries. But coal is a bulky thing- question along the corridors of to the disorganisation of their

"It might be made so if they to transport. Berkeley Square House, to the distributive system.

were left free to develop their Road transport, apart from Its room of the man who plans and

"The goods they produce, oven synthetic processes, turn the inability to replace bulk transport by directs these mysterious but those of inferior quality, because transport systems upside down, rall, devours precious petrol and oil." massive blockade operations, of the added strain on transport, and given a few years to ac- Facts For Germany Hugh Dalton.

will fall to reach the place complish a complete economic where they are wanted."

rovolution.

By this time our Economic War- Care Chief was in full stride across "This all-round interference

"But the time and freedom of the room again. Let me give you at once the with Hitler's war machine will conclusions I formed after hear. open up the way to offensive as operation they want is just what ing the confident, fact-supported sault in other fields," I sug wo are not giving them.

gested.

"We work in close accord with answers I got from him.

Striding up and down his the RAF. Their bombing plans essential supplies avaliable to Hitler 1. By the end of 1941 the room-with as much vigour as are directed to the points where in Europe?"

blockade of certain essen- if he were bustling his way we have good reason for think- tial raw materials will seri- across his fav- ously affect the quality, ourite Wiltshire and to some extent the Downs the volume of enemy produc- Minister for tion.

Economic War- fare indicated 2. Long before the end of the

his complete year-probably in the sum- agreement with mer the strain on enemy this proposition. oil resources will be acute.

3. Before next winter our in-

not

"Exactly," he

The

ig

6

ereasing disturbance of said. Germany's industrial and blockade transport system will have vital and essen. caused a grave distribu, tial weapon. If we just sit back tional crisis,

and wait until

I submit those conclusions, we have ac. as optimistic prophecies, cumulated but as a considered and realistic enough strength assessment of coming events.

T

Summing It Up

Hugh Dalton

to take the mili- tary offensive against Hitler we shall wait in vain.

ing that the

I got him back to his chair and studled reflection by this straight query:

"What are the real facts about the

This was his answer:

"I don't want to exaggerate Ger- maximum in-many's shortages. dustrial and

"But pre-war stocks and loat from transport dis-the

otcupled territories are being location will fol- used up, and in the area under Ger- low.

man control there is a natural de "And so com- ficiency of rubber, oll, cotton, copper, and certain ferro-alloys for liarden- plicated is this ing steel. artifical system

on which Hitler access to in abundance. She has no "Iron ore, however, Germany has

relies to utilise lack of bauxite, from which alumini- the ganeral re-un, for aircraft and to replace cop- sources of Eu-per in non-vítal places, is made. ropo that our "Both these commodities have been destruction of made available by her recent con- and confer an advantage which should not be under-estim-

one point radi- quests, dates far-reach- ated." ing waves of disturbance

Key Commodity

But what of oil, the key commodity of modern war?

right across the Continent." Here I raised the question of Hit- 'ler's Ersatz system" to which the, Minister had referred. "Can you explain that more precisely?" in being criticised for over-optimism on

He gave one of his high-explosive quired. **

¥

When I brought this question up 'I reminded the Minister that he was

this score.`

MR Matsuoka has given Mr Chair- chill a new assurance that Japan has no intention of attacking British territory, which means that Japan

Not all the answers I was has either abandoned her southward

"We must strike hammer expansion project, or that the Japan- given can be published. For

obvious

reasons much of the blows at the enemy's most vul- ese Foreign Minister doesn't mean

background to the blockade must nerable point. That point is the exactly what he says. It would be

core of his vast but not too remain secret. nice to be able to accept the arst

securely established production But in support of the above alternative, but quite frankly the

machine. new and accelerated Japanese mili-affirmations about this riddle of

1941, let me give you some of: "We have been striking such routes radiate from that region. Ex- oli in Continental Europe west of the

lary and naval movements around the South China waters do not en-

nurage this,

is utterine While Mr Matsuoka bland assurances, a Japanese spokes- man in Saigon is boasting of the huge quantities of arms and munt- tions which Japan is sending to Thailand; a new. Japanese armed landing is made at Pukhol; Japanese warships are reported to be steaming southwards; more transports with men and munitions are londed of Bins Bay. Perhaps this is merely an indulgence in "war games" to keep Japan's increasing overseas armies

Mr Dalton's statements to me. blows for months past. I put to him my first general shall continue to do so query about the prospects of the mounting effect. blockade in 1941. This was his -reply:

We

with

"I cannot volunteer a definite estimate of the probable results

"Well, here is an example. Trans- laugh port is a major weakness for the

"I know" he said, "but let me Dalton replied. "The

state the grounds for my optimism In Nazis," Mr natural way into Germany is from their least sensational aspect. the Western ports. All the transport

"Total peacetime consumption of

traordinary delays and complications Soviet is something like. 25 million are caused by the attempt to use for tona. Of this Germany and Italy urgent war purposes the reverse route normally used nearly 11 million tons. from the Eastern side."

The maximum agure for European

high es

Including

a

oil

I invited Mr Dalion to develop his timate of

prosynthetic

production and

"Blockade creates the vulner- able points, bombs attack them. point-about "all-round-pressure," "Ig-assuming all of Rumania's output of it sufficiently complete for your pur- over six millions is available, only

asked. "Are there no amounts to around 11 million tons.

That leaves a gop of 14 million tons between consumption and pro-

"Bombs, you might say, are 'pose?" I

of the blockade in a given time the most direct form of econo- loopholes in your net " in ignorance of other factors mic warfare. outside my control. Blockade does not work in a vacuum.

Oil Gap

"I would not say the pressure was duction, even supposing Germany can complete," he replied. "Some sup- get hold of all existing European sup- "And the results of this com- pltes will always and their way plies. bined assault at no very distant through any blockade, however, sicfl- "It cannot win the war alone. date will be seen, either in reck- fully devised. But I can say that the leaks are comparatively unimportant.

"We are not working in the dark. With the most drastic restrictions "Blockade is the permanent less attempts by Hitler to force background against which mill- an early issue or in a growing We have a pretty good idea from on non-military consumption, and various sources of the supplies reach- allowing for the accumulation of vari tary action is set. Until we loss of his striking power.

Ing enemy and enemy-controlled prewar stocks, that gap is too wide know the probable scale of mili

territory."

to be comfortable for a nation en- goged in modern mechanised warfare! "Everything said of the distribu- tion and transport problem in respect of coal can be applied to all-only more so.

from becoming bored with inactivity,tary operations, it is impossible Ersatz Basis

The Minister's answer showed his anxiety to set his picture in proper perspective:

Far East Route "You must. remember," he

but such an explanation is too com- to predict the extent to which fortable. The British Government blockade will affect the enemy's

went on, "that the whole basis has not sent thousands of Australian war effort.".

of the Nazi war organisation is and Indian troops to Malaya simply

"Allowing for these other fac- artificial, or 'Ersatz.' them an opportunity of to give learning how to hack

tors," I asked, "how far will path through dense jungles or to take a course in blockado eventually decide the tropical botany; wherefore it must be issue of victory or defeat for assumed the British Government, die Hitler?" spite Tokyo assurances, is prepared to believe that British territory in the Orient face a

threat. real very It behoves Hongkong, and especial- ly its unwieldy Chinese population to shake itself into a state of preparedness. Yesterday the Tele- graph

suggested that the leaders of the Chinese community put their beads together in an endeavour to evolve a scheme for die evacuation, as soon as possible, of a goodly por- tion of the Colony's excess popula- tion; atte

alternatively to give the fullest support to any such plan proposed by Government.

at

"What about supplies from Russia and the Far East?" was my next

query.

"Rumonlo's oil used to be trans- ported chiefly by scu. Now no oil "I suppose you have in mind the can reach Hitler by sen, and while old Vindivostok problem," the Minis- we control the Eastern Mediterrane-

"They have built up a huge but complicated organism which ter retorted. "Well, you need nol an. Germany must depend on con- is highly brittle. Weakness or worry much on that score. There gested rail and river transport from dislocation at any one point in- are vast transport problems to be Rumania, evitably retards the operation of faced before goods in any quantity "I do not think Germany will actu- can get through from that area of ally be able to transport much more every part of that organism. the Far East. What Is passing than half Rumania's total output.

through is a mere trickle, And we "And a breakdown, with seri- keep a sharp eye even on that tric- synthetic all plants, refineries and "And don't forget we are bombing "We do not underestimate ous effects on Germany's mill- kle

vital rail centres incessantly, Germany's superior war pre- tary strength, is a far from re-

"I must confess that the amount paredness, nor discount her vast mote consequence of the all- of cotton passing by this route is accumulated stocks of war ma- round pressure we are steadily one of our present problems, and will

torial.

Unwise To Prophesy

be dealt with."

The Real Key

exerting."

"There I think you have the real Here the Minister resumed his "Transport problems," I suggested, key to your riddle of 1941.

"Our economic assault is certain to "seem to be altogether a major seat and allowed me to make a

be positive-very apparently positive. · source of Naz! headaches?"

"I think decisive is too big n word "My own view ia," said Mr few points.

"Qulle right. They are all part of for 1941. But blockade will prove at During last week-end it was an- nounced that the authorities aimed Dalton, "that we should expect These amounted to this ques- the distributional crisis I spoke of least as decisive as it did in the Inst.

of several thousands settling

a long rather than a short war, tion: "How has the blockade earlier. Long before the war Ger- war." Chinese from Hongkong's congested It would be unwise to prophesy been affected by the enemy's many's railways were feeling the

of the unnatural burden to was to confront him, with the con-

My final question areas on Lantau Island and Port that we shall assume complete victories in the summer?" Shelter, and, if regarded only as a contmand or bring German pro-

which they were subjected..

clusions enumerated at the beginning "This burden is now intensified of this article, "Would you say they tenfold. Just think of the pre-war were far wrong?" I naked.

He repiled: "You are in danger of volume of Imports by sea to Ger. many alone to say nothing of the being classed with me as an optim- ist, but I think your conclusione aro near the mark.” "Of that volume a great deal is

mend. Every encouragement

this has measure,

much to

is duction to a standstill in 1041. promised by the authorities to those willing to take advantage of the

but Chinese reaction has not will seriously affect the quality manifested

yet

"But, I can say this. Blockade

Using Up The Loot "Hitler's problems of organi- tion have been vastly extended

stral

scheme, usted itself. Becoming of German war production, ant sation, supply and administra- occupied territories.. the urgency of the problem, Chinese will also substantially interfero and complicated by his military

here present- are lenders

cut off, without redress, by our sen community ed with a fine opportunity of prae- with its distribution in itself a conquests," was the reply. blockade, but all the rest is thrown tical assistance by appealing, both vital consideration." through public speeches and through

not be ideal, but it possesses advan-

"He obtained much loot, which

on to the railways of Europe. ..

"Germany may steal rolling stock

and

I asked for an illustration of is quickly being used up. When from her victims, cut down passenger the Chinese press, for a quick willing response. The scheme may this possibility.

it has gone he has millions more services to 30 per cent. pre-war ser- vlees or less, but the problem re- tageous fentures, and at the lowest "Well, here is an example," consumers to support.

maing, and we expect to see some in- can be described as a bold method

was the reply. "By cutting off

"They want what Germany (eresting results in this field in 1941. very pressing of partly solving n problem. Lack of support for it can supplies of nickel and other wants rubber, oil, textiles, cop-

"Take the distribution of coal, for only be justified by suggesting an stcol-hardening alloys, as we are

example. On paper. Germany has big point

plenty of coal. And yet recent ovi- Tol. 20328 Chinese community must remember doing very effectively, the quali- per, tin and fats."

la that something has to be done in ty of the Nazis' guns, tanks and

Nazi bonst that Europe under situation is serious,

Tel. 21270 alternative.

the matter.

סוני

other weapons will suffer.

I put in a reminder of the dence shows that in many places the

to Mr Dalton

TO-MORROW : W. N. EWWER will write on the posi- 'tion of Europe's re- maining neutrals and what may happen to them in the - coming'

year.