1938-11-10 — Page 6

THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 1938,

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Small Increase Over 25 Years

BRITISH EMPIKE

United Kingdom

To-day 2,100,000,000

$5,800,000

46.600.000

Irish Free #late

3,000,000

Australasia

9,650.000

Union of South Africa Canada

8,000,000

10,375,000

1911 1,620,000,000 419,400,000

45,400,000

5,800,000 0,000,000 7,100,000

165,750,000

135,000,000

41,900,000

30,250,000

00,000,000

64,000,000

43,800,000

34,700,000

$27,000,000

01,170,000

00,250,000

51,000,000

Soviet Russin

France

Germany

or

Italy

United States Japan

fertility are at work, though her po- among whom the same influences pulation is still increasing, and will were seen at work. probably continue to Inercase for

To change from the small family, unother twenty years-till it reaches in which the number of children is 90,000,000.

deliberately limited, will not be easy.

to the

Action Required

decline in the birth-rate is most

marked.

But according to Mr. Crocker, who It will be à case of the cradle versus studier! the problem on the spot, comfort, and will involve drastic our housing schemes, Japer's people are marrying at a changes in later date or avoiding marrrlage, which have boycotted the baby, ns despite strong social pressure upon garages have replaced nurserica. them to marry.

Such is a bird's-eye view of the population problem in some of the In Italy the case is much the same, world's typical States, What stands is particularly noteworthy in this IN his speech at Margate, and

There, too, the Government is doing out from it Is Its menuce last year

when opening the its utmost to increase the birth-rate British Empire. If the population dard of comfort in highest, there the connection that, where the ston- Budget, Mr. Chamberlain drew and to make Italy one of the most Great Britain sank by 10,000,000 or attention to the new set of pro- expert verdict is that is measures flow of emigrants to the Dominions

prolife nations. But there, too, the 20,000,000 there could be

no steady

Action is clearly required, but of blems which "the progressive have not permanently increased the oversea, where the population now what character should it be? Here the biometriclans do not help us. Hongkong Hotel decrease in our population" is have encourage, though they may tenda to stagnation or decline.

encouraged marriage and pre- The authorities on the subject are Professor Carr-Saunders haa no going to raise. They are vast vented the birth-rate from falling agreed with a singul unnimity doubt as to the urgency of the matter and terrifying problems which more rapidly than it has done. that the small family customary to- or the stupendous dimculties which In Asia's most highly civilised day is the true cause of the world- will have to be overcome. He holds demand the closest study.

State, Japan, there are distinct indi- wide movement of depopulation. that there must be a reform in the cations that forces unfavourable to They can point to the ancient Greeks, outlook upon marriage as the prelude. The hour is at hand when our population

will decrease. It has risen continuously for the last 250 years, it doubled itself between 1801 and 1851; it doubled itself once more between 1851 at 1011. Bul now this automatic advance 3- censing. We are approaching one of the turning-points in world history.

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The

Hongkong Telegraph.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 1938,

Autumn or Fall?

in speeded-up delivery, there is

But

DR.

Falling Population

R. GRACE LEYBOURNE, a statis-

ticlan of special authority, after į a detailed investigation of the figures,

has calculated that a definite decline 1941. By 1951 the population will in the English population will begin

PERSONALITIES OF OLD HONGKONG

Fate's Strange Trick On

Brilliant H.K.

A

Hongkong during the first Į place."

Lawyer

Naturally enough the the pleasure of Her Majesty be

When corn ears turn brown and hang downward, when muts thud on thin sod or clatter on have fallen from 10,500,000 to 30,-few years of its history was the community which thrived upon known." Meanwhile, the official the bare earth, when leaves 500,000. By 1975 it will have been mecca for all sorts and con-gossip in lien of infre-Coroner of the Colony, Mr. redden and yellow, when the halved and will fall to 10,000,000.

ditions of men who flocked here quent news from the out-Percy Caulincourt McSwyney. lawn caretaker rakes them into

This calculation assumes that fer- in search of wealth, adventure, side world was keyed up to who seemed to have been heaps, and coal trucks rumble.

tility will continue at its present level. and a successful career. Some expectancy, and the following a former classmate of his, had the announcement in the Government been forced to resign from his no mistaking the season.

There are experts who regard that as had been sailors before

others. army veterans Gazette of July 29, 1846 was re- once, and he was nominated to do you call it autumn, or fall?

an opimistic assumption. Dr. Enid mast,

the most avid fill the vacancy. This latter Charles, another statistician of dis- from Indin, and a formidable garded with "In

appointment was, however, but every way,"

tinction, calculates that if the rate of host of nondescript individuals attention: says

"Mr. N. D'Esterre Parker, temporary; for the Government learned Englishman of old Lon- fertility should continue to fall as it of various crafts and profes- don, "fall is better on the merits is at present doing, a century hence sions. Among these latter were Solicitor of the High Court of felt that Mr. Parker was better sort, the population of England will have a number of lawyers, many of Chancery, and one of the At-fitted to serve as Proctor in whom subsequently proved to torneys of Her Majesty's Courts Admiralty than as a Coroner, Saxon, picturesque. It reveals shrunk to only 4,426,400.

Bench, This would be about half the popu be pariahs of the legal profes-of Queen's its derivation to every one who

Common and he was accordingly gazetted uses it, not to the scholar only lation of Greater London to-day. It sion, whose sojourn here was Pleas, and Exchequer, in Ire-in that capacity on January 12, as does autumn. We once had is an alarming Ogure, and were it usually short and troublous. land, has been duly admitted to 1847. as good a right to it as the verilled, it would

mean the fall of Many of them, moreover, were practice as a Solicitor, Attorney, The year 1847 was, moreover, "Sydney ducks" and these men, and Proctor of the Supreme the annus mirabilis the ''won- Americans, but we have chosen the British Empire,

especially by their irregular Court of Hongkong, Mr. Parker derful year" of his stay in to let the right lapse so that to Peculiar Decline

methods, brought disgrace upon is likewise a legally constituted Hongkong-for on every hand this monosyllable now is

the profession, so much so that Public Notary of the High Court he prospered. His legal prac

than autumn.

LINC

IL is

faith can be placed in such calevla-

to

re-

he was

little better than larceny." IT will naturally be asked whether by the year 1845, the European of Prerogation of England.tice increased by leaps and Apparently autumn is now tions. The answer is that the statis-residents felt that one of their Office at Messrs. Bowra and bounds, so that he felt it incum- English, while fall is American. Uciana of the world are in tolerably most urgent needs was for a Co's., Queen's Road."

bent to seek additional assis- Further investigation reveals close agreement. Moreover, there is fully qualified member of the Bar Mr. Norcott D'Esterre Parker tance, and despatched a letter to autumn as better suited to the feet that in 1921 calculations of who would not only be able to was born in Ireland about the his younger brother William in vurse, with fall congenial to made in the Registrar-General's oilce represent them honourably in year 1818. Very little is known Ireland to come out and join him

the probable population in 1031 were prose. The searcher can scare- for non-official use, When the 1931 legal matters, but who also about his life at Home, save that in Hongkong. The administra cely find a poetic reference to Census Returns were available, the would be willing to assist in the he AVAN & graduate of the tion, too, had come to regard full whereas

error in the estimates was only 0.13 building up of the infant Colony. University of Dublin, and was a him as one of its most promising he encounters

Their wishes were soon to be member of the Irish Bar. autumn almost at every tura per cent.-a negligible amount.

Ho servants. His successful dis- "yellow autumn wreathed with

The decline in population is not go-gratified; for late in June 1846, was, however, apparently a man charge of his duties as tem- nodding corn," "autumn is the though in her case it threatens to be

ing to be peculiar to Great Britain, rumours were circulated that at with high connections; for his porary Crown Prosecutor in- mellow time," "autumn nodding more marked and much more danger-long last a barrister who was catablishment of a legal practice fluenced the Governor to name a'er the plain,” “an autumn thatous than in other countries. The really an ornament his in the Colony was at once wel him permanent appointee, and grew by reaping," "autumn days whole civilised world is affected. In profession was shortly to settle comed, and from the very begin- on November 30, 1847, an an- are here again," "autumn's fire," fty years been causing, unclety, anor in the Colony. This person ning of his stay he possessed announcement to this effect was

France, the low birth-rate has for "happy autumn-fields,”

W13 "the there a drop in population from 42, whose identity not dis-extensive clientele. The local published in the Gazette. windy lights of autumn." and 000,000 to 39,000,000 is anticipated by closed, was stated to possess administration favourably "autumnal leaves in

and Vallom- 1980, the decline setting in next year. | “extensive legal acquirements garded him,

His speedy rise in the esteem brosa."

In Germany, ever since the Nazi and experience," and, moreover, appointed by the Governor, Sir of the general public was un- fortunately to bo suddenly advent to power, there has Autumn has won classic ap-anxiety about the birth-rate, which acquisition to the society of the porary Crown Prosecutor, "until inexplicable performance, which been was avowed to be a "welcome John Davis, to serve as tem- dashed by an apparently proval and wide sanction has shown a distinct tendency to fall. through long usage; it be- A positive decline in the population

brought the young Irishman's is predicted by the biometricians from

down speaks the scholarly. Fall is 1940 onwards.

lofty visions of success popular because of its shortness

about his cars like the collapse According to Kuhn's eslimate- and ease of enunciation. But prepared before Herr Hitler's reme-

of a house of cards. It seems that one January day in 1849, autumn remains the poets" dial measures were put into force-

Mr. Parker finding time hanging favourite because autumnal it will sink from its present figure of

rather heavy upon his hands glory has a poetic ring and fall, 60,000,000 to less than 30,000,000 by 1075; or, by Burgdorfer's calculations,

WAN hoping that something it seems, has none.

It will fall to 47,000,000, in 2000.

would turn up to allay the tedium; for life in Hongkong was now for the first time be- ginning to surfeit him. As if in answer to his wish there ar- rived in his office a Chinese police informer by name of Lee Kip-tye, who told him that at Ping Chau, an island between Hongkong and Macao, there was a junk anchored which had on board a number of articles from the wreck of a European ship.

The Exception

Theory-

Almost

150

yenra ago THE most important exception to Thomas Day died without learn the world-wide decline is likely to ing much from life. He was an be Russia, perhaps because her ardent apostle of Rousseau, the civilisation is too rudimentary to be French educationist.

affected by the mysterious forces at work. The present population of His enthusiasm for reform about 150,000,000 is expected even coloured his idea of the double itself in the next sixty years. wife he wanted. Day adopted, confronting a Europe with shrunken an orphan girl and tried to train and sinking population will be an her after the Rousseau princi-even graver problem than the un- ples. But she jumped when ho wieldy, heavily armed Soviet State of fired a blank shot near her, screamed when he dropped hot ous efforts to increase the German scaling-wax on her hand.

In fact, she reacted as any normal girl would, and Thomas Day decided against marrying her. For she would not behave according to his theories.

And human nature

Years later he was still trying

A Russia of 300,000,000 inhabitants

10-day.

The reason for Her Hiller's strenu-

birth-rate is now clear. The por- tentous Russia of the future will Ge- a tremendous peril to Germany,

As yet, however, Herr Hller's measures have produced disappoint- ing results, though it is true that they have raised the number of birtha from 978,000 in 1930 to 1,181,- 000 in 1034.

In the opinion of Professor Carr- Saunders, the beat British authority to train other lives. He experi-ed so far is that an unusually large on the subject, "all that has huppen- with a colt this time, number of first births have ucen But the horse knew nothing crowded into a year, and no abiding about-Rousseau.

mented

change has been produced in the rate

of fertility." He thinks the forces ot It kicked Thomas Day and he work too powerful to be readily mas- never recovered,

tered.

GRIN AND BEAR IT

By Lichty

SCENCE

CONTROL ROOT

}(HARD)

The BILGE HAUR DINH COMEDIAN

DOE TRUFFLE BIGE HAERAL WATER PROGRA

WHILE

"Next week la Joe's birthday—I'm thinking of buying him two, new gaga!"

"How. Jolly. it. would be," thought young Parker to him- self, "if I could just find out what the name of the wreck may be. By Jove, I think I will go out and have a look.".

Leaving his office in charge of his brother William, Mr. Parker act off for Ping Chan, in-com- pany with the above-mentioned police Informer, and another Chlnose whose name is nót men- tioned in accounts of the episode. Upon their arrival at found tho the island thoy Chinese Junk beached upon the abore, and being caulked by h number of boatmen who word (Continued on Page 7)