TNAG-2991-FCO40-3566-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 35

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THEREBY BE STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE QUESTION OF EXCO MEMBERSHIP BY MARTIN LEE AND HIS COLLEAGUES WOULD HAVE BEEN RESOLVED DEFINITIVELY. HOWEVER WE THINK IT CLEAR THAT THE IMMEDIATE CHINESE RESE SE TO THE PACKAGE OF PROPOSED CHANGES WOULD BE THAT THEY REPRESENT A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE TO HONG KONG'S POLITICAL SYSTEM: THAT THIS IS CONTRARY TO THE JD AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SMOOTH TRANSITION UP TO 1997, SMOOTH TRANSFER OF POWER IN 1997 OR HONG KONG'S LONG-TERM PROSPERITY AND STABILITY: THAT THERE SHOULD THEREFORE BE FULL CONSULTATION WITH THE CHINESE SIDE ON THIS MATTER: AND THAT NO UNILATERAL ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE MEANTIME. THE CHINESE WOULD EXPLOIT ANY DIFFERENCES WHICH EMERGED IN HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION TO DISCREDIT THE PROPOSED CHANGES.

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THIS LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF TIMING. THE PROPOSED CHANGES TO EXCO AND THE SETTING UP OF A HINGE BODY' WILL BE ENTIRELY NEW TO THE CHINESE. THERE ARE TWO OPTIONS:

WE GIVE ONLY A FEW DAYS WARNING BEFORE THE GOVERNOR'S LEGCO ADDRESS: OR

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II) WE WARN THEM WELL IN ADVANCE.

WE KNOW FROM PAST EXPERIENCE THAT BOUNCING THEM WITH MAJOR NEW PROPOSALS LEADS TO AN EXPLOSIVE KNEEJERK REACTION FIRST, WITH RATIONAL THOUGHT COMING ONLY MUCH LATER (VIZ, THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NATIONALITY ACT). IF WE GIVE THEM LONGER NOTICE THEY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INSIST ON FULL CONSULTATIONS. MOREOVER THE CHINESE WILL NOT EXPECT ANY MOVEMENT TO BE MADE ON CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS BEFORE THEY HAVE MET THE GOVERNOR. THEY WILL BE LIKELY TO ASSUME THAT THIS IS THE FIRST STEP IN A MAJOR CHANGE IN BRITISH POLICY TOWARD HONG KONG THAT THEY HAVE LONG SUSPECTED TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE. IN SUM, WE NEED TO RECOGNISE THE RISK THAT THE CHINESE SIDE WILL EITHER TRY TO FORCE CONSULTATIONS ON US OR WILL REACT VIOLENTLY TO ANY UNILATERAL ACTION.

10. THE QUESTION OF 1995 LEGCO ELECTORAL ARRANGEMENTS QUGHT TO BE MUCH LESS DIFFICULT. IT IS AGREED BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES THAT WE NEED TO DISCUSS THE ARRANGEMENTS AND NONE OF THE CATEGORIES IN PARA 9 OF TUR WILL BE NEW TO THE CHINESE. THEY WILL NOT LIKE ALL OF OUR SUGGESTIONS BUT THAT IS ONLY TO BE EXPECTED. WE SEE NO PROBLEM IN LUDING ANY OF THESE POINTS IN THE GOVERNOR'S LEGCO ADDRESS EVEN WITHOUT SPECIFICALLY FOREWARNING THE CHINESE (THOUGH IT WOULD OBVIOUSLY SHOW GOODWILL TO DO SO).

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// WE ARE NOT QUITE CLEAR WHAT SORT OF 'MESSENGER' ENVISAGED. ANY PRIOR NOTICE WOULD BE BETTER GIVEN THROUGH ONE OF THE ESTABLISHED OFFICIAL CHANNELS AT A SUITABLY HIGH LEVEL. IF ADVANCE WARNING IS TO BE GIVEN ABOUT THE PROPOSED CHANGES TO EXCO, WE DO NOT THINK THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S MEETING IN NEW YORK WOULD BE THE MOST APPROPRIATE FORUM: QIAN WOULD NOT EXPECT TO BE FACED WITH A NEW AND COMPLICATED PROPOSAL OF THIS KIND AT THIS MEETING. ANY CASE WE HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED CONFIRMATION FROM THE CHINESE ABOUT THE LENGTH OF THE MEETING.

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