TNAG-2991-FCO40-3566-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 34

PREDICT TO WHAT EXTENT THE HONG KONG PUBLIC WOULD FIND AN EXCO COMPOSED OF OFFICIALS AND INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ANY LEGCO MEMBERSHIP CREDIBLE, OR WHAT THE RESPONSE OF THE VARIOUS PARTIES IN LEGCO WOUI BE TO SUCH A SUGGESTION, THOUGH WE IMAGINE THE CRC WOULD TAKE BADLY TO BEING THROWN OUT OF EXCO AND THE UDHK TO BEING DENIED ADMISSION.

#

6. TO A CERTAIN EXTENT CRC AND UDHK REACTIONS MIGHT BE TEMPERED BY INCLUSION IN THE PROPOSED 'HINGE BODY'. DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE CRC AND UDHK WOULD BE CONTAINED IN LEGCO OR THE 'HINGE BODY' RATHER THAN CREATING TENSION BETWEEN EXCO AND LEGCO. THIS SHOULD ENABLE EXCO TO RESUME MORE CLEARLY ITS LEADING AND NON-PARTISAN ROLE. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW EXACTLY THE HINGE BODY' WOULD FUNCTION. WE ASSUME THE IDEA TO BE THAT EXCO WOULD DECIDE ON A POLICY WHICH WOULD THEN BE PUT TO THE HINGE BODY' IN THE HOPE THAT THE HINGE BODY' WOULD ACCEPT IT AND DELIVER THE VOTES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE LEGCO GROUPINGS. HONG KONG IS BETTER PLACED THAN WE TO JUDGE WHETHER THIS WOULD BE WORKABLE. WE BELIEVE THE CHINESE MIGHT WELL REGARD A HINGE BODY' PLAYING SUCH A ROLE AS A THREAT TO EXCO'S POSITION UNDER CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES. FOR EXAMPLE, APPOINTING MARTIN LEE TO THE HINGE BODY' WOULD BE, IN CHINESE E 3, GIVING HIM A POSITION EVEN STRONGER THAN HIS CURRENT POSITION IN LEGCO FROM WHICH TO CHALLENGE THE EXECUTIVE. THE CHINESE WOULD WELCOME THE FACT THAT UNDER THE NEW ARRANGEMENTS THE DANGER OF MARTIN LEE SITTING IN EXCO WOULD BE DEFINITIVELY EXCLUDED. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GOVERNOR'S PARTICIPATION IN THE HINGE BODY' AND THE LINK ASSUMED BETWEEN ITS DELIBERATIONS AND THE RESULTING VOTE IN LEGCO WOULD STILL BRING POLITICAL ISSUES AND CONFLICT CLOSER TO THE EXECUTIVE THAN WAS THE CASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DIRECTLY-ELECTED MEMBERS IN LEGCO.

1.

PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF THE PROPOSED CHANGES IN HONG KONG WOULD NO DOUBT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION AND WAYS FOUND TO MAKE THE CHANGES ACCEPTABLE (PARA 8 OF TUR). AS THE GOVERNOR RECOGNISES (PARA 5 OF TUR) THE CHINA DIMENSION IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. TIME AND AGAIN THE CHINESE HAVE EMPHASISED THAT THE LESS POLITICAL CHANGE IN HONG KONG DURING THE REST OF THE TRANSITION PERIOD THE BETTER BECAUSE THIS WOULD GUARANTEE A SMOOTH TRANSFER IN 1997 AND THE MAINTENANCE OF HONG KONG'S PROSPERITY AND STABILITY.

8.

Redacted Under FOI Exemption Sec 27(1)

IN PRESENTING THE PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE CHINESE WE COULD ARGUE VIGOROUSLY THAT THE SYSTEM OF EXECUTIVE-LED GOVERNMENT WOULD