CONFIDENTIAL
143056
07
MDHIAN
OBJECTIVES. THE WHOLE AREA REMAINS HIGHLY SENSITIVE. SO IS THE QUESTION OF POLITICAL REFORM. THERE WILL BE NO ENCOURAGEMENT OR TOLERANCE OF DEMOCRATIC IDEAS. JIANG ZEMIN'S REPORT TO THE CONGRESS ON BEHALF OF THE OUTGOING CENTRAL COMMITTEE MAKES IT CRYSTAL CLEAR THAT THE PARTY INTENDS TO MAINTAIN ITS EXCLUSIVE HOLD ON POWER, AND THAT IT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POLITICAL REFORMS WHICH WOULD BE RECOGNISED AS SUCH IN THE WEST, NOT EVEN OF THE MODEST KIND WHICH WERE ON THE PARTY'S AGENDA UNDER ZHAO ZIYANG'S LEADERSHIP BEFORE 1989. THOUGH BOLSTERED BY SOME PROMINENT ECONOMIC REFORMERS, THE LEADERSHIP WILL REMAIN PROFOUNDLY UNSYMPATHETIC TO THE APPROACH TO DEMOCRACY SET OUT IN THE GOVERNOR'S LEGCO ADDRESS. FOR THEM STANDING STILL IS THE PREFERRED OPTION, EXCEPT WHERE CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO BRING THINGS INTO LINE WITH THE BASIC LAW AS THEY INTERPRET IT.
5.
WHERE HONG KONG POLICY IS CONCERNED THERE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ANY CHANGES IN THE KEY FIGURES ON THE CHINESE SIDE, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LU PING WILL REMAIN DIRECTOR OF THE STATE COUNCIL HONG
36 3 match KONG AND MACAO OFFICE WITH HIS AUTHORITY ENHANCED BY PROMOTION TO "Patin THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE (ALONG WITH ZHOU NAN). LU MAY BE IN SOMEWHAT
-
BRUISED MOOD WHEN HE SEES THE GOVERNOR. I SUSPECT THAT IN THE MARGINS OF THE CONGRESS HE WILL HAVE BEEN ON THE RECEIVING END OF COMPLAINTS FROM SENIOR LEADERS ABOUT HIS FAILURE TO KEEP HONG KONG AND THE GOVERNOR UNDER CONTROL. HE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE BEEN BEHIND THE CAMPAIGN OF VITUPERATION AGAINST THE GOVERNOR'S CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS MOUNTED IN THE LEFT-WING HONG KONG PRESS, AND WILL ALSO HAVE APPROVED THE INSTRUCTIONS TO GUO FENGMIN FOR THE AIRPORT COMMITTEE MEETING ON 15 OCTOBER.
6. I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE CHINESE POSITIONS ON CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND ON THE AIRPORT TO UNDERGO ANY SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION DURING THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT. LU PING WILL BE TESTING THE GOVERNOR'S ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE. HE WILL ALSO WISH TO LEAVE MR PATTEN IN NO DOUBT ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF CHINESE VIEWS AND OF THE GRAVITY OF THE CONSEQUENCES (WHICH WILL NOT HOWEVER BE SPELLED OUT FULLY) IF THEY ARE IGNORED. HE MAY INDULGE IN SOME HISTRIONICS TO UNDERLINE HIS POINTS. BUT HE WILL KEEP THESE IN CHECK. HE KNOWS THAT MR PATTEN IS THE GOVERNOR HE HAS TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AND HE WILL BE ANXIOUS TO ESTABLISH A PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP ON WHICH HE CAN BUILD IN FUTURE.
7. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER LI PENG OR ANY OTHER SENIOR LEADER WILL SEE THE GOVERNOR WHEN HE IS HERE. THE HKMO ARE BEING UNUSUALLY CAGEY, NO DOUBT BECAUSE NO DECISION HAS YET BEEN TAKEN.
PAGE
2
CONFIDENTIAL
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.