TNAG-2990-FCO40-3574-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-talks-betwee-1992 — Page 182

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

FM PEKING

TO DESKBY 161015Z FCO

TELNO 1439

OF 160954Z OCTOBER 92

AND TO DESKBY 161015Z HONG KONG

INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP JLG HONG KONG

por R. Chingle

143056

MDHIAN 3607

THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT TO PEKING, 20 - 23 OCTOBER:

PROSPECTS

SUMMARY

1. OUTCOME OF PARTY CONGRESS WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR HONG KONG ECONOMY BUT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CHANGE IN CHINESE POLITICAL ATTITUDES, NOR IN KEY PERSONNEL ON CHINESE SIDE. LU PING MAY BE IN BRUISED MOOD WHEN GOVERNOR COMES. MAY INDULGE IN SOME HISTRIONICS BUT WILL WANT TO ESTABLISH A PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP. NO NEWS ON WHETHER LI PENG WILL SEE MR PATTEN.

DETAIL

2. MR PATTEN'S FIRST VISIT TO CHINA AS GOVERNOR WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE 14TH CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY. IN ITS FINAL DOCUMENTS THE CONGRESS WILL GIVE A RINGING ENDORSEMENT OF THE PUSH FOR BOLD MARKET REFORMS WITHIN A SOCIALIST FRAMEWORK ADVOCATED STRONGLY BY DENG XIAOPING SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR.

3. THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE NEW PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE WILL NOT BE MADE PUBLIC UNTIL THE END OF THE CONGRESS ON 18 OCTOBER. THE NEW POLITBURO AND ITS STANDING COMMITTEE WILL BE FORMALLY CHOSEN BY THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE WHICH WILL MEET FOR THE FIRST TIME AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT IT IS ALREADY CLEAR THAT THE LEADERSHIP WILL RECEIVE A SUBSTANTIAL INJECTION OF NEW BLOOD: THAT THE RANKS OF THE REFORMISTS WILL BE EXPANDED: AND THAT THE HARD LINE INFLUENCE WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY REDUCED.

4"

THIS SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HONG KONG AND THE NEIGHBOURING REGIONS OF CHINA, TO THE ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF BOTH. BUT IT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CHANGE IN CHINESE ATTITUDES ON POLITICAL ISSUES CONCERNING HONG KONG. THE REUNIFICATION OF TAIWAN, HONG KONG AND MACAO WITH THE MAINLAND REMAINS AT THE TOP OF THE LIST OF NATIONAL

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