CONFIDENTIAL
Australia net
Canada have abor
Leer supportive
are other areas where the US administration has potential
leverage for
T
instance in restricting Chinese access to hi-tech
equipment, or by not backing Chinese bids for loans from domestic
or international financial institutions.
10. Japan has potential leverage, but is inhibited from using
it by historical factors, and self-interest. Our European partners have also shown little sign of being willing to risk Chinese ire by using their influence in our favour. Other
Commonwealth countries lack real leverage with China.
11. On multilateral pressure, our options include lobbying
through the G7 Summit; in the EC; and at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM). (See Annex for details). Chinese re-accession to GATT is another potential pressure point.
Ultimately if relations with the Chinese deteriorated to the extent that we had nothing to lose we could turn to the United
Nations (UN) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Assessment
12.
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Many countries have their own economic reasons for
monitoring Chinese policy towards Hong Kong, and forming judgements about the likelihood of China keeping the promises she has made. The purpose of increasing the pressure would be to
influence the way the Chinese behaved, or at the very least to
make sure that they realised that they would pay a high price in international terms higher than they would want to pay if they damaged Hong Kong. Real constraints on Chinese behaviour
will arise only when they see that their policies towards Hong
Kong will, if continued, affect their own economic reform programme or position in the world. The most powerful of the available tools are therefore US policies towards China, especially MFN, and GATT re-accession.
internat.NAT
JEB
CONFIDENTIAL
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