TNAG-2914-FCO40-4189-International-support-from-the-USA-regarding-the-future-of-H-1993 — Page 26

UK.REP.LG HONG KONG.

FRI 12 NOV 93 16:53

PG.02

Pw52

CONFIDENTIAL

11 November 1993

Graham Fry Esq

Far Eastern Department

FCO

Office of the

British Senior Representative

Sino-British Joint Liaison Group

St John's Building, 3rd Floor

33 Garden Road

Hong Kong

Telephone: (852) 868 2171/2416/2435 Facsimile: (852) 868 2431

yes 11

लह

Dear Graham,

US/CHINA RELATIONS

1. I thought it worth reporting very briefly that there appears to be a growing perception around town here that there has been a sea change in US/China relations. This undoubtedly flows from the news that Jiang Zemin will be meeting Clinton in Seattle and various other reported visits, contacts and moves (Red Cross prison visits). But I suspect that it goes wider than that and that Chinese officials are briefing to the effect that the relationship is improving. I have heard it from businessmen in the context that as the US/China relationship improves, UK business will have to try even harder (unspoken comment: do not shackle yourselves further with political problems over Hong Kong). I have also heard it from an American academic/consultant who drew my attention to the two enclosed articles by Oberdorfer from the International Herald Tribune of 9 and 10 November. His view, rather contrary to the one cited above, was that if the US/China relationship were on the upswing, this could only be for the good atmospherically in determining how matters progressed over Hong Kong.

2.

We all recognise that the US/China relationship is the crucial one in the Region. The (obviously extremely valuable) informal talks on 18 October at Chevening gave us the opportunity to hear US views at senior official level. Much of the content of the IHT's articles is based on the decisions and events which Winston Lord referred to in his briefing at Chevening. But Lord's overall conclusions were considerably less optimistic about the likely progress in US/China relations than the interpretation being put on the US moves by the people I have spoken to. I assume therefore that Chinese officials, for their own reasons, may be talking up the prospects. But we need to bear in mind too that the US may decide for its own reasons to

CONFIDENTIAL