UK.REP.LG HONG KONG.
FRI 12 NOV 93 16:53
PG.02
Pw52
CONFIDENTIAL
11 November 1993
Graham Fry Esq
Far Eastern Department
FCO
Office of the
British Senior Representative
Sino-British Joint Liaison Group
St John's Building, 3rd Floor
33 Garden Road
Hong Kong
Telephone: (852) 868 2171/2416/2435 Facsimile: (852) 868 2431
yes 11
लह
Dear Graham,
US/CHINA RELATIONS
1. I thought it worth reporting very briefly that there appears to be a growing perception around town here that there has been a sea change in US/China relations. This undoubtedly flows from the news that Jiang Zemin will be meeting Clinton in Seattle and various other reported visits, contacts and moves (Red Cross prison visits). But I suspect that it goes wider than that and that Chinese officials are briefing to the effect that the relationship is improving. I have heard it from businessmen in the context that as the US/China relationship improves, UK business will have to try even harder (unspoken comment: do not shackle yourselves further with political problems over Hong Kong). I have also heard it from an American academic/consultant who drew my attention to the two enclosed articles by Oberdorfer from the International Herald Tribune of 9 and 10 November. His view, rather contrary to the one cited above, was that if the US/China relationship were on the upswing, this could only be for the good atmospherically in determining how matters progressed over Hong Kong.
2.
We all recognise that the US/China relationship is the crucial one in the Region. The (obviously extremely valuable) informal talks on 18 October at Chevening gave us the opportunity to hear US views at senior official level. Much of the content of the IHT's articles is based on the decisions and events which Winston Lord referred to in his briefing at Chevening. But Lord's overall conclusions were considerably less optimistic about the likely progress in US/China relations than the interpretation being put on the US moves by the people I have spoken to. I assume therefore that Chinese officials, for their own reasons, may be talking up the prospects. But we need to bear in mind too that the US may decide for its own reasons to
CONFIDENTIAL