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5. I briefed the Deputy Director-General for Asia in detail on Hong Kong. He assured me that Japan took every opportunity to urge the Chinese to lower the temperature and work to resolve the dispute through dialogue. With him and others I explored reactions to Mr Miyazawa's recent call for a regional dialogue on security questions. It was clear that Japan intends to proceed very cautiously, seeking in the first instance to build on post-PMC procedures perhaps through extending consultation at senior official level.
6. My impressions of the internal political scene are inevitably sketchy ones. Some of the key questions under discussion are:
what are the prospects for real political reform?
Answer: not bright. The proposals on the table to control fund-raising are little more than cosmetic, and the opposition parties should be able to frustrate any proposed changes to the electoral system (eg to a first-past-the-post procedure) which would threaten to reduce their representation in the Diet;
will the breakaway Hata faction try to reform the LDP from within or to found a new political grouping?
Answer: hard to say at this stage, but either way they will find it difficult to make an impact. Paradoxically, to reform "money politics" will take more money than they will easily be able to raise;
is there a potential majority for measures to reform. the constitution and allow Japan a more active military role abroad?
Answer: probably not. The Japanese population remain predominantly pacifist and would not give their approval in the referendum required by amendment procedures.
In short the most likely prospect is for drift on the political front rather than purposeful change, whatever the posturing and point-scoring currently under way.
6.
In general the Embassy, under the stimulation of a new and laterally-thinking Ambassador, struck me as a high-grade and purposeful operation. The political, commercial and economic sections (the last responsible for important trade policy work) struck me as all strong. Much emphasis is currently being placed on reinforcing our
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