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GUARANTEES. HOWEVER, PRINCE SIHANOUK'S RE-ENGAGEMENT IN THE PEACE PROCESS, RENEWED COOPERATION WITH UNTAC AND LIKELY RETURN TO CAMBODIA NEXT MONTH ARE HELPING TO PUT THE PEACE PROCESS BACK ON THE RAILS. WHILE THE DISARMAMENT ASPECT OF THE PARIS PEACE AGREEMENT HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, ACTUAL FIGHTING REMAINS AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE. HOWEVER IT IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED THAT THE KHMER ROUGE DO NOT HAVE THE MILITARY ABILITY TO TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY, NOR INDEED TO DISRUPT ELECTIONS ON A NATIONWIDE BASIS. IN ANY CASE, THE SECURITY SITUATION IS NOT LIKELY TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND WE WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE FAIR WARNING OF PROBLEMS ON A SCALE LIKELY TO AFFECT PHNOM PENH AIRPORT AND TOURISM TO SIEM REAP. FOR THE PRESENT, PHNOM PENH AIRPORT IS A MAJOR CENTRE FOR UNTAC OPERATIONS AND WILL REMAIN SO (AND THUS SOMETHING OF AN INTERNATIONAL OASIS) UNTIL UNTAC WITHDRAWS AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN MAY OR WHEN A NEW GOVERNMENT IS FORMED AND SWORN-IN SOME THREE MONTHS LATER.
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WE HAD UNDERSTOOD FROM DRAGONAIR THAT THEIR REASON FOR DELAY WAS NOT POLITICAL OR LEGAL, SO MUCH AS OPERATIONAL IN THE SENSE THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE AN AIRCRAFT FREE TO OPERATE TO PHNOM PENH OR WERE NOT PREPARED TO LEASE ONE BEFORE THE SPRING. THIS IS A PITY GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE UNTAC PICKINGS HERE AT THE MOMENT. OUR HOPE IS THAT DRAGONAIR COULD AGREE WITH KAMPUCHEA AIRLINES A ONCE OR TWICE WEEKLY SERVICE INITIALLY AND BUILD UP AS THE SITUATION WARRANTED. WE SHOULD NOT FORGET THAT KAMPUCHEA AIRLINES HAS ONLY ONE 737, LEASED FROM SABENA AND OPERATED BY AN IRISH CREW AND IS PRESENTLY SERVING BANGKOK, KUALA LUMPUR AND SINGAPORE. KAMPUCHEA AIRLINES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OFFER MUCH MORE THAN A ONCE OR TWICE WEEKLY SERVICE TO HONG KONG, EVEN IF THEY LEASE A SECOND 737.
5. THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF CATHAY PACIFIC, MR EDDINGTON, WILL BE SEEING THE QUOTE PRIME MINISTER OF THE STATE OF CAMBODIA UNQUOTE IN HONG KONG ON 19 JANUARY. IT WOULD BE USEFUL IF DRAGONAIR COULD HAVE MADE UP THEIR MIND BY THEN SO THAT, ASSUMING EDDINGTON CAN SPEAK FOR DRAGONAIR, HUN SEN CAN BE ASKED TO FACILITATE THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE OPENING OF AIRLINKS BETWEEN HONG KONG AND PHNOM
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