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4. In the immediate future he thought that Premier Hau and his cabinet would have to resign before the new Legislative Yuan convenes. This would mean that Hau would probably not be reappointed. Huang himself spoke very highly of Hau's ability and integrity (he was a little less warm about President Lee) and . thought the most likely successor would be Lien Chan, Governor of Taiwan. Although thought of as native Taiwanese, Lien was also acceptable to the mainland faction, as he was at least half mainlander. He had been born on the mainland, though his father was Taiwanese, and he was married to a mainlander. Other possible candidates were Chien Fu, the Foreign Minister, and James Soong, KMT Secretary General of the KMT. He thought that it would be wise for Lee to choose a mainlander for the post. At the same time, he argued that the analysis of a split between mainlanders led by Premier Hau and native Taiwanese led by President Lee was too simplistic. Much of the supposed controversy between them was generated by ambitious people in their entourage who were out to advance their own interests more than those of the country. fact the situation was more complex. Hau numbered Taiwanese amongst his supporters, just as Lee had mainlanders among his. Their support was determined by their economic interests as much as by accident of birth.
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5. The election result had been a bad set-back for the KMT. People were sending a signal that they were fed up of the old system and money politics. At the same time the DPP had been much more astute in their handling of their campaign. In the National Assembly elections they had allowed the KMT to exploit the pro-indpendence stance of the DPP top frighten voters off. This time they had been wise to that tactic, and had not played so easily into KMT hands.
6. Taiwan was much looking forward to the accession of President Clinton. They saw him as a true friend of Taiwan. had visited six times during his term as governor of Arkansas. was not likely to change his tune to the same extent that President Reagan had when he took office. Mr Clinton knew his own mind and was not easily swayed once he had made it up.
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RF Wye
Far Eastern Section
Research & Analysis Dept
OAB 2/125 210 6219/6216
15 January 1993
cc Mr Bunten HKD
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