20. Liberia/Sierra Leone:
(i) Defeat or
premature withdrawal of ECOMOG forces in
Liberia, collapse of interim Government and/or
(ii) Lawlessness in Sierra Leone, triggered by Liberian conflict, leads to complete collapse of government.
21. Togo: Civil war, spilling over into Southern Ghana.
22. Rwanda: Civil war resumes. Uganda drawn in.
23. British Indian Ocean Territory: Mauritian landing on outlying island, in support of sovereignty claim.
CONFIDENTIAL
(i) Minimal in Liberia; but stabilty of region at risk. Wish to avoid Western intervention.
(ii) Limited. Wish to avoid Western
intervention.
Minimal in Togo, more significant in Ghana.
Regional stability if war not contained within Rwanda.
Marginal: an embarrassment rather than a crisis: but would absorb much Ministerial time.
Taylor/NPFL retakes territory and arms. Nigerians/Ghanaians reduce ECOMOG commitment.
Increase in size of bandit areas. Withdrawal of Nigerian battalion.
Increased terrorist activity, army dissent. Tribal conflict.
Breakdown of ceasefire.
Foreign Minister Berenger allowed to lead on the issue.
Limited military training for Sierra Leoneans; liaising with Nigerians; diplomatic support for ECOMOG in Liberia and for efforts of UN and ECOWAS to resolve the conflict.
As above.
Liaison with US, France, Ghana; British community advised to leave; Ghanaians cautioned against military intervention.
Contacts with US, Belgians and French to monitor events. Promoting peace efforts.
Keep close watch on situation: scenario unlikely to develop at present. If it'did, need to avoid over-reaction, which would play to Mauritian motives (of internationalising the dispute, rather than seeking unsustainable military confrontation).
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