15. Ethiopia: Rupture between OLF/EPRF leads to resumed civil war.
16. Somalia: further escalations of violence and local hostility towards UNISOM. Growing doubts about exercise by troop contributors.
17. Mozambique: implementation of peace accords likely to be turbulent; elections probably not until Oct 1994; weapons likely to be hidden, sold on or used in banditry.
18. Angola: continuing civil war.
19. Zaire: Complete
collapse of government or break-away of a region.
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Limited. But new humanitarian crisis would need costly relief operation.
Credibilty of UN. Humanitarian.
Minimal though we give a lot of aid.
Limited, but rules out early expansion of trade.
Marginal within Zaire. But refugee crisis could destabilise
neighbours.
Stalemate in mediation efforts, relations worsen, more armed clashes.
Levels of violence. Troop contributors thinking of withdrawal.
Angola: Mozambique could go the same way.
Continued refusal of UNITA to negotiate; level of fighting.
Mobutu leaves. Sustained outbreak of looting.
Helping to promote
reconciliation. If progress stalls, may need stronger international effort including warning parties of
consequences of resumed conflict.
Limited influence while UK not
a troop contributor.
Consensus-building at UN.
Training of unified Mozambican army in Zimbabwe.
Participation in four commissions set up to implement Peace Agreement.
Supporting UN mediation efforts.
British Community' already advised to leave. Embassy thinned and evacuation plans in hand.
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