5.
Jordan: regime collapses. Vacuum sucks in Syria/Iraq/Israel/ Saudi Arabia, sinking peace process. Palestinian/East Bank violence and regional
war.
6. Argentina: return to a hostile relationship with the UK.
7. Belize/Guatemala:
deterioration of relationship.
8.
Turkey:
internal upheaval. Crisis over Iraqi-Kurds in the cross-border operation.
CONFIDENTIAL
Strategic interests in regional stability.
They could make life more difficult and expensive for us eg threatening the Falklands fisheries, cutting our links to mainland, preventing search for hydrocarbons.
Obstacles to planned reduction of garrison.
Substantial: apart from Operation Provide Comfort we would be an awkward position, in NATO, Council of Europe etc.
King Hussein's health. Major economic problems or Palestinian/ East Bank unrest.
Internal political upheaval; more hostile stance; upgrading of offensive military capability; abandonment of sovereignty umbrella.
Esquivel amends Maritime Areas Act; Guatemalans react by pressing territorial claims and withdrawing recognition of Belizean statehood.
Growth of
terrorism/internal
military activity.
Regular top level political dialogue and co-ordinate close monitoring with US.
Managing the relationship so that we attain our own objectives while persuading Argentina that it remains in her interest to keep a cooperative relationship with us.
Offer of £22.5m aid for road projects; encouragement to both sides to maintain normalisation and avoid provocative measures.
We have taken lead in improving relationship between the Community and Turkey.
CONFIDENTIAL
7
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